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ranged alongside Serbia, which has refused to join sanctions all along, as well as Bosnia, where the Bosnian Serb leaders have blocked efforts to take tougher action on Russia.
Turning back to Russia
The reformist government led by Kiril Petkov, appointed after Bulgaria’s third general election of 2021, condemned the invasion and announced sanctions on Russia. Bulgarian public opinion also turned against Russia; pre-war polls
put approval for Russian President Vladimir Putin among
the Bulgarian population at around 60%, while it collapsed to only 16% in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. Around 80% of Bulgarian disapprove of the war, and they are increasingly critical of politicians including President Rumen Radev, who have taken a more ambiguous stance on relations with Moscow.
However, with the war adding to existing tensions, the differences between the four parties in Pektov’s coalition eventually led to its collapse. Radev then appointed an interim government headed by caretaker Prime Minister Gulub Donev, seen by many as picked by the president with the task of bringing Bulgaria back into the Russian orbit, including by agreeing to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles in violation of EU sanctions.
Radev was initially seen as a reforming influence, backing anti-corruption protesters in the summer of unrest in 2020, and, as reported by bne IntelliNews, he was also regarded as the informal godfather of Petkov’s cabinet. Yet the war in Ukraine divided the cabinet and president, with the former being openly pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian, while Radev turned into the protector of Russian interests – much to the dismay of many of his former supporters.
Moscow approves
The steps already taken since the new cabinet was appointed on August 1 to reverse some of the actions taken by Petkov and his ministers – who took a stand against Russia and continued work to root out corruption – have clearly
pleased Moscow. After the fall of Petkov’s government,
the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova said Moscow is no longer considering ending diplomatic relations with Bulgaria, and added that Russia is now hoping for a “more pragmatic” regime that would not adopt an anti-Russian policy. Mitrofanova is a high-profile figure whose controversial comments have several times sparked complaints from Sofia.
During Petov’s time in power he and his ministers revealed several scandals that shed light on the scale of Russian influ- ence within Bulgaria – eventually prompting Sofia to take the unprecedented step of expelling 70 Russian diplomats.
Russia has been paying money directly to Bulgarian politicians, public figures, famous journalists, analysts and other public figures to shape public opinion in favour of
Moscow, Lena Borislavova, head of the political cabinet of outgoing Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, said in an interview for Darik radio on July 2. Borislavova said that the Bulgarian security services have information on monthly payments of BGN4,000 (€2,045) to these public figures.
Maria Simeonova, programme coordinator of the European Council on Foreign Relations' (ECFR) Sofia and wider
Europe programme, linked together corruption and Russian influence in Bulgaria in a recent comment. “[Pektov] learned a hard lesson while trying to deliver on his election promise of 'zero tolerance of corruption': the fights against graft
and Russian influence in Bulgaria are two sides of the same coin. Engaging in either battle comes at a high political cost, tending to topple anyone who makes the attempt,” Simeonova wrote.
“The outgoing government might have underestimated both the extent of Russian influence in the country and the power of Bulgarian institutional traditions as legacies of its monarchist, communist, and democratic past ... the government was undone by resistance to its attempts to expose the toxic links between corruption and Russian influence, which have caused Bulgaria to lag behind many other EU countries for years,” she added.
Beyond Bulgaria
Russian agents in Bulgaria are also believed to have contributed to the deterioration in the country’s relations with North Macedonia. Sofia blocked the start of EU membership talks with North Macedonia during the previous government, led by Boyko Borissov, stalling the progress towards EU accession of both North Macedonia and Albania, which are coupled in the process. In March, Petkov said
a network of Russian spies had been working to hinder the EU membership of the Western Balkan countries and was behind the worsened relations between Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
“The Russian interest has been focused on preventing a European future for the Western Balkans. Someone is trying to replace the Bulgarian interest,” Petkov said as quoted by Dnevnik news outlet.
North Macedonia finally secured its launch of accession talks in July. However, the story of the dispute with Bulgaria is not over. Skopje had to make further concessions, as set out in the so-called ‘French proposal’ to end the deadlock. That left the county poised to start the long-awaited talks but it is also internally divided and racked by protests.
Confidence vote looms in Montenegro
Montenegro’s government is also poised to fall, with a confidence vote in Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic's govern- ment imminent. Ironically, it was a party of Western-oriented politicians, President Milo Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), that precipitated the situation when they
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