Page 44 - Technology Roadmap Transportation

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2035

in the field of electronic components (semiconductors, sensors), FIG 1.12

electronic control units (e.g. body electronics, brake control systems FREIGHT TRAFFIC (2012-2017)[15]
and engine management) and other system control units.

1.5 DRIVERS FOR GROWTH IN ROAD
TRANSPORT SECTOR 2012 -------------------- 2013
1,315
For a developing country like India, a national road transportation
system is required, which can economically move anyone anything,
anywhere, anytime, on time without fatalities and injuries. For
the growth of the economy, good living standard, independence
of its citizens as well as functional and efficient transportation
1,429
system should be in place, which leads to reduce dependence on 2013-------------------- 2014
imported energy and is environment friendly too. A comparison
of Indian road transport scenario, BPKM vs BTKM is given in
figure 1.11.

Road freight in India has increased since its 1950–51 level of 6 2014-------------------- 2015
BTKMs to an estimated 1,250 BTKMs in 2011–12, witnessing a 1,553
CAGR of 9.14% during this period. Over the next five-year period,
from 2012–13 to 2016–17, assuming GDP growth of 8%, road YEAR YEAR
freight is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6%. Road transport
segment has not traditionally seen significant investments in
manpower development as compared to other segments such as
1,688
rail and air. This has resulted in skill gaps among the existing set of 2015-------------------- 2016
personnel, particularly among the truck drivers.Assuming that this
rate of growth would continue in the future, the freight traffic upto
2017 is shown in figure 1.12 whereas the passenger traffic is shown
in figure1.13.

In ‘BAU’ scenario, the projection of passenger traffic is based on 2016-------------------- 2017
the pattern of growth of passenger traffic between 1980-81 and 1,835
2010-11. The rate of growth of passenger traffic during this period
was ~8.8% per annum. It may be noted here, that the growth rates
of per capita income, measured by per capita Net National Product
(NNP), population and urban population during 1980-81 to 2010- FREIGHT TRAFFIC BTKM
11 were 4.9%, 1.9% and 2.9%, respectively[14].
FIG 1.13 PASSENGER TRAFFIC (2012-17)[16]

8150 8483 8868 9111 9648 9762 10497 10438 11421 11140

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

BAU REGRESSION ANALYSIS

PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN 2012 PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN 2017

The passenger traffic measured was projected to grow at 7.2% per annum during 2012 to 2017.
Based on BAU and regression analysis, BPKM for next five years is shown in figure 1.13.
BPKM = f (rate of population growth, rate of urbanization, per capita income)

42 ROADWAYS