Page 45 - Technology Roadmap Transportation

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: TRANSPORTATION

The basic drivers for the growth in road forecast that energy demand will increase
transport sector in India are as follows: by 30-40% by 2035. Oil and gas prices are
(i) Rising population: India is already one of expected to continue to rise substantially,
the most densely populated countries in the although it is generally considered that sufficient
world. By 2035, this situation will have been resources shall still be available but the rapid
exacerbated by a mammoth rise in population, increase in prices is changing the scenario that
which is forecasted to reach 153 billion by generates the need of transformation in road
2035[16]. transportation sector.

(ii) Income inequality: Income inequalities are (viii) Cost of travel in real terms: Bus fares and
growing e.g. between north and south, rural the cost of driving (excluding car purchase
and urban communities and indeed within price) have both increased at a very fast pace.
many towns and cities across the nation. These However, when car purchase prices are taken
inequalities enhance the vehicle purchasing into account, the real costs of motoring actually
power of affluent class, which affects the road falls significantly. These two factors influence the
transportation system. Even middle and low car purchasing tendency hence affects the road
income group population is interested in transport. This also increases the total car travel
purchasing two wheelers and low end cars. distance per person per year.

(iii) Young population: The number of people (ix) Road congestion costs: Road congestion
aged between 14 to 64 years is expected to is already costing the economy dearly. This not
increase, resulting in a higher ratio of workers only affects the passengers but also affects
to the dependants, leading to higher savings. the industrial production and directly nation’s
This would translate into increased ability economy. Due to rapid growth in vehicle
for vehicle ownership in next few years. This numbers, this factor enforces for innovative
will greatly push up the need of an efficient strategies to reduce congestion.
transportation system.
1.6 Guiding Principles of an Efficient
(iv) Demand stability: The passenger vehicle Transportation System
industry is also benefitting from India’s The overarching concept of sustainable
favourable demographic profile, which is transport involves moving people, goods and
reflected by its very young population (50% information in a way, which reduces the impact
population under the age of 25), steadily on environment, economy, society as well as
improving dependency ratio, growing includes using energy-efficient transport modes,
urbanization and trend towards smaller improves transport choices, uses cleaner
nuclear families. In addition to this rising per fuels and technologies embedded with using
capita GDP level is also resulting in vehicle information and communications technologies
affordability. to reduce or replace physical travel which
will lead to a sustainable transport system.
(v) Higher demand in future: While new forces Many of these approaches are included in the
have emerged that may impact the travel issues identified above. The development of a
demand in future, the department of statistics sustainable land transport system for India will
forecasts that the road travel will continue to also involve reference to a range of indicators
increase by ~30% between 2011 to 2035. [17]. for sustainable transport which includes fixed
and flexible urban transport routes, public
(vi) Public transport on the up: The historic transport priority, private motorized vehicle
trend of falling public transport patronage has ownership, accessibility of public transport
ceased in many cities in recent years due to vehicles and infrastructure, passengers carried
introduction of modern metro system. In many by public transport, investment in public
metropolitan cities >35% commuters have transport, road safety, fuel consumption, and
already shifted their mode from road to rail pollution reduction technologies in public
transport. transport fleet. It will be important to develop
the framework and sources of data, by which
(vii) Cost of energy: Globally, Shell and BP the road transport system can benchmark

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