Page 24 - EW JAN 2022

Expert Comment

Agenda for Republic

at 72

NEERAJ KAUSHAL

HE REPUBLIC OF INDIA WILL TURN 72 THIS Sustained growth of 8 percent-
year. In 1950 when newly independent India
transformed into the first republic of the Brit- plus requires substantially greater
Tish Commonwealth of nations, the vast majority investment in Indian youth and the
of free Indians were illiterate, malnourished and poor.
Subsequent droughts of the mid-1960s gave India the education sector. Forty percent of the
image of a dependent nation that went around the world population is below 18 years and half
with a ‘begging bowl’ to feed its millions. Our goal was below 24 years of age
self-reliance, yet we could not survive without foreign
aid. Former US senator and ambassador to India, Daniel
Patrick Moynihan, scathingly wrote: “What does it (India) per year.
export but communicable disease?” Today it is painful The Covid-19 pandemic has exacted a devastating toll
to read this, but, that was the image of India in the early on lives and livelihoods. The pace of annual GDP growth
1970s, a full quarter century after independence. which was declining before the pandemic, crashed by 7.3
Progress on most economic and development mea- percent in 2020-21. Opinions on how fast the economy
sures remained slow for decades. Foreign investors can grow over the next five years are mixed. Some say the
avoided India, and a few that dared to start businesses miracle growth rates of the early new millennium years
here were soon packed off. Plunder and loot by the East are a distant dream. India has squeezed all it could from
India Company which ruled the country for eight de- the economic reforms of the 1990s and early 2000s. GDP
cades, had made us psychologically intolerant of foreign growth of more than 5 percent requires economic policy
companies on Indian soil. So under the leadership of reforms for which there’s little political will or appetite.
prime ministers Pandit Nehru and then Indira Gandhi, xperts in finance, Reserve Bank of India and the In-
we charted a course of development with a concoction of Eternational Monetary Fund project a more optimistic
strategies including self-reliance and investment in public outlook. RBI has forecast GDP growth of 9.5 percent in
sector enterprises promoted to dominate the command- 2021-22 and the IMF has accepted this projection. The
ing heights of the Indian economy. IMF forecast for India’s GDP growth in 2022-23 is 8.5
The following statistics recount the sobering outcome percent. These impressive targets, if attained, would make
of these isolationist development strategies: It took four India one of the world’s fastest growing economies.
decades (1950-1990) to double India’s per capita income. However, sustained growth of 8 percent-plus requires
The Republic crawled for decades before it could stand substantially greater investment in Indian youth and the
upright and walk on its own. education sector. At 72, India is a remarkably young na-
The next doubling of incomes happened faster — in 17 tion. Forty percent of the population is below 18 years and
years, from 1990-2007, and even faster in 12 years from half below 24 years of age. But most of our youth entering
2007-2019, as India progressively opened up its economy the workforce are unskilled. Employers complain that
and removed shackles that constrained private enterprise. even college graduates lack employability skills.
Three decades ago, India was a basket case economy. The sad reality is that even the best ranked higher edu-
Now it’s the world’s sixth largest. From an economic lag- cation institutions of India suffer chronic faculty short-
gard, India now stands tall among emerging economies. ages, accentuated by the Covid pandemic. A third of the
Our aspirational goals are to grow from the current faculty positions in Central universities and 43 percent
$2.9 trillion (Rs.218 lakh crore) into a $5 trillion economy of faculty positions in the country’s renowned IITs are
by 2024-25 and a $10 trillion economy by 2030. But at- vacant, aggregating to over 10,000 in Central universities,
taining these targets requires annual GDP growth rates of IITs and IIMs.
15 percent. This is a dizzying target, difficult to attain in a Skills scarcity is a global phenomenon as is competi-
single year and almost impossible to sustain for ten years. tion to attract qualified faculty. The only option to stay
No other country has done this. In reality, we are likely to in this race is to educate India’s young population and
fall short of the 2025 target by at least $1 trillion. ideate policies and structures to attract talent and skilled
Impossible though these targets may seem, they are professionals from around the world just as the United
indicative of the long way we have travelled and how we States, several European countries, Canada and Australia
view ourselves in the world. In the first four decades of have done. China has joined this race, India should too.
the Republic, our GDP growth target was 5 percent per And quickly.
year — a feat attained in only six of those 40 years, often
enabled by low or negative growth in the previous year. (Dr. Neeraj Kaushal is chair, doctoral program, School of Social Work, Co-
Now, we worry when GDP growth falls below 5 percent lumbia University, USA)

24 EDUCATIONWORLD JANUARY 2022