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Asia The Economist December 9th 2017 39

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Caste in Indian politics ents. Last year’s sudden ban on high-value
Group think currency notes hurt farmers and small
businesses badly; this year’s clumsy impo-
sition of a complex sales tax has frustrated
tradersand manufacturers. Farm prices are
low; jobs remain scarce for the upwardly
mobile young, despite much-vaunted for-
eign investment. “This election is a contest
Ahmedabad between those who benefitfrom the ‘Guja-
The ruling party’s formula forbuilding an electoral majorityis misfiring
rat Model’ and those many who do not,”
NDIA’S national parliament, the Lok erwith allies it now runs18 states, account- says Jignesh Mevani, a lawyer and an out-
ISabha, sits for barely 70 days a year. The ing for roughly 60% of the population. Mr spoken leader ofGujarat’s Dalits (formerly
shortest of its three sessions normally Modi haslooked like a shoo-in fora second known as Untouchables).
starts in mid-November. This year, though, term, starting in 2019. A loss in Gujarat The accumulation of grievances is not
the government has given MPs an extra would blunt this momentum and, more new; what is new is Congress’s ability to
month’s holiday. The reason: Gujarat, a important, tarnish the lustre of the party’s exploit it. In recent times many have dis-
bastion ofthe rulingBharatiya Janata Party star attraction. From 2001 to 2014 Mr Modi missed the once-dominant party as a wob-
(BJP) and home state of Narendra Modi, was Gujarat’s chief minister, and turned bly collection of has-beens, lacking any
the prime minister, will hold a staggered his much-hyped “Gujarat Model” of busi- message or solid base and saddled with
election on December 9th and 14th for a ness-friendly development into a spring- the increasingly lacklustre hereditary lead-
new state legislature. board to national power. ership of the Nehru/Gandhi dynasty. Mr
Why should MrModi want to delay the There are multiple reasons for the BJP’s Modi’s BJP, in contrast, has been energetic,
business ofstate fora whole month, just to woes. Anti-incumbency always runs focused and cleverly ruthless in its exploi-
go campaigning in a middling state of only strong in India, and some of Mr Modi’s tation ofclassand, especially, sectarian dif-
66m people? Party spokesmen say this is policies have also angered key constitu- ferences to hookvoters.
the BJP’s style; it takes every election seri- Its winning formula has been to stoke
ously. But opponents say the party is Hindu fear of the Muslim minority while
scared oflosingon its home turf. Saffron and on “uniting” Hindus by weaving a careful
If opinion polls are to be believed, the India, Gujarat Legislative Assembly, seats held web of alliances with leaders of various
BJP has reason to worry. As recently as Au- Bharatiya Janata Party Other castes, all underthe general rubricof pater-
gust, according to the Centre for the Study Indian National Congress nal rule, order and progress. The BJP in ear-
ofDevelopingSocieties, a Delhi think-tank 200 lier times was closely associated with the
with long polling experience, the BJP held higher castes, but under Mr Modi it has
an unassailable-looking30-pointlead over 150 shed its exclusionary image. The prime
its main rival, the Congress party. By late minister’s own modest origins have lured
October this had fallen to 6% and by late 100 in lower-ranked castes. The BJP has also
November to zero; in the last lap of the tried to cultivate Dalits, greatly expanding
race, Congress and the Hindu-nationalist 50 its membership to give them a place, and
BJP are neckand neck. honouringDalit heroes ofthe past.
The BJP’s sudden slump is shocking. A tactic that has proven particularly ef-
The last time it lost a major vote in Gujarat 1980 85 90 95 2000 05 12 0 fective in several states, notesPrashant Jha,
wasin 1990 (see chart). Countrywide, it has Source: Election Commission of India authorofa recentbookon MrModi’sparty,
latelybeen on a winningstreaktoo; togeth- has been to rally both upper and lower 1