Page 50 - The Economist

50 Middle East and Africa The Economist December 9th 2017
2 summit even began, the UAE announced a ued atmore than $5bn peryear. Dubai is an plundering billions from the Arab world’s
new economic and military alliance with entrepot between Iran and the world. Sau- poorest state. Mr Saleh faced mass protests
Saudi Arabia. It was a clear sign that the di Arabia and the UAE have backed differ- duringthe Arab spring, and survived an as-
GCC’stwo mostimportantmembersthink ent factions in Yemen, and have different sassination attempt. The Gulfstates finally
the bloc has outlived its usefulness. goals in Syria. At present, though, more un- forced him out and replaced him with his
Asan economicunion the GCC hashad ites than divides them. Their new alliance vice-president, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
some successes, including a free-trade area does not replace the GCC, but it pushes the But the Houthis felt disenfranchised, and
with standardised tariffs and laws. But 36-year-old bloc further into obsolescence. in late 2014 stormed Sana’a, to the relief of
more ambitious plans, like a common cur- “It’s just a talking shop,” says an Emirati many frustrated with Mr Hadi’s inept rule.
rency meant to be adopted by 2010, have businessman in Dubai. 7 They also forged an unlikely alliance with
stalled. And asa political groupingit isdys- Mr Saleh, who saw a way back to rele-
functional. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are vance. Within six months their forces had
hostile to theirregional rival, Iran, and to Is- The war in Yemen reached the southern port city of Aden,
lamist groups like the Muslim Brother- leadingthe Saudis to intervene.
hood. Bahrain has been under the Saudi Shaken up Formore than two years a Saudi-led co-
thumb since 2011, when the kingdom sent alition has battered Yemen with airstrikes.
troops across the King Fahd Causeway to At least 10,000 people have been killed,
quell an uprising led by the island’s disen- most of them civilians. Disease and hun-
franchised Shia majority. Oman, mean- BEIRUT ger are widespread. The conflict has be-
while, keeps close ties with both the Arab Ali Abdullah Saleh’s death will further come another front in the proxy war be-
Gulf states and Iran. Kuwait tries to sit out splinterthe Yemeni battlefield tween Saudi Arabia, which champions
(or at the summit, help resolve) regional Sunni Islam, and Iran, which provides
disputes. And Qatar, always the black T WAS an unceremonious end. On De- some support to the mostly Shia Muslim
sheep, broke decisively with its neigh- Icember 4th Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s Houthis. For all its military might, the Sau-
bours during the Arab spring when it sup- former dictator, was killed outside the cap- di-led coalition has struggled to defeat a
ported Islamists across the region. ital Sana’a, which has been paralysed by a much weakerfoe. Twice in the past month,
The embargo has not yet forced it to week of fighting. A video circulated online the Houthis even managed to launch bal-
stop. With huge gas reserves and a popula- showed his bloodied body wrapped in a listic missiles at Saudi Arabia.
tion of just 2.7m, it is the world’s richest gaudy blanket, surrounded by militiamen. Last week, after months of tensions
country in purchasing-power terms. The State television called the formerpresident with the Houthis, Mr Saleh suddenly end-
central bank has poured over $40bn into “the leaderofthe traitors” (see Obituary). ed their three-year partnership and called
the economy since the financial crisis. Visi- His death was emblematic of Yemen’s for dialogue with the coalition. Backed by
tors and residents barely notice the block- complexity: Mr Saleh was killed by the Saudi warplanes, his network of tribal
ade. Locals complain about the potato Houthis, enemies who had become allies, fighters captured large parts of Sana’a. But
crisps, now imported from Oman and less only to become enemies again. For all his within days the Houthis recaptured most
flavourful than the old Saudi ones, and manyfaults,MrSalehwasthemostpower- ofthe territory they had lost, and besieged
goods like cardamom and Diet Pepsi can ful politician in Yemen, and both America the ex-president’s home, which they later
run short. Butin Villagio, a gaudyVenetian- and Saudi Arabia had hoped to use him to blew up. At least 200 people were killed in
themed mall, shelves are stocked. Though brokeranendtothewar.Hisdeathleavesa Sana’a overthe past week, accordingto the
tourism hastaken a hit, the restaurants and power vacuum that no one else will be International Committee ofthe Red Cross.
bars at Doha’s five-star hotels are still busy able to fill any time soon. The former president was one of them,
serving lavish buffets and imported wine. MrSaleh ran Yemen (before1994, North shot by those same rebels he had just days
“We’ve adjusted to the blockade, to living Yemen) for 33 years. But he failed to give a before been fightingalongside.
on an island,” says one member of the rul- growing population the necessary invest- His death is an embarrassment for Sau-
ingfamily. ments in health care and education. In- di Arabia’s crown prince, Muhammad bin
The blockading states, meanwhile, stead he and his allies were accused of Salman, who has suffered a string of for-
have moved on to bigger concerns. In No- eign-policy failures (see previous article). It
vember the Saudis tried to remove Leba- will probably open a new front in the war,
non’s prime minister. They felt Saad Hariri between the Houthis and Mr Saleh’s now
had made too manyconcessionsto Hizbul- leaderless fighters. MrSaleh’s son, Ahmed,
lah, the Iranian-backed militia that sits in may seek to fill his father’s shoes, keeping
hisgovernment. MrHariri wassummoned the fighters on the coalition’s side. He has
to Riyadh, forced to resign, and held under already vowed to “lead the battle until the
house arrest for two weeks. But the stunt last Houthi is thrown out of Yemen”. So
backfired when France brokered his re- might General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a
lease, and on December5th he formally re- one-time Saleh loyalist who now serves as
scinded his resignation. Saudi efforts MrHadi’s vice-president.
failed, too, to flip Ali Abdullah Saleh, the So the battlefield is likely to become
former Yemeni president, who since 2014 even more splintered. The rebels will try to
had been aligned with the Houthi rebels consolidate power in the capital, where
fighting a Saudi-led coalition. In early De- tens of thousands of their supporters jubi-
cember Mr Saleh turned on his allies and lated after Mr Saleh’s death. The coalition,
called fordialogue with the Saudis. Within for its part, has already increased its bomb-
days, he was dead (see next story). ing campaign. General Ahmar’s men are
Even Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already advancing south towards the capi-
their differences. The Saudis consider Iran tal. Donald Trump called on December6th
an existential threat. Less so the Emiratis: for Saudi Arabia to lift the blockade, but
one-sixth of Iranian exports go across the this looks unlikely. Further misery lies
Strait of Hormuz, with non-oil trade val- A swift revenge ahead foran already battered country. 7