Page 55 - The Economist

The Economist December 9th 2017 Europe 55

Charlemagne Little briar Merkel

Germanyis notaboutto reinvigorate Europe
give the moribund Bundestaga populistshock.) NowMrsMerkel
is trying to rebuild the “grand coalition” of the past four years
with the SPD, and some hope Mr Schulz’s party could inject it
with some pro-European vim. As a former president of the Euro-
pean Parliament, Mr Schulz is well suited to place the EU at the
heartofhiscoalition talkswith the CDU, and MrsMerkel’slackof
alternatives hands him tremendous leverage. Lo, this week a list
of SPD demands surfaced that proposed working with Mr Mac-
ron on issues like taxharmonisation and European investment.
Do not get too excited. The problem is not just that the SPD is
intellectually bankrupt, politically rudderless and in desperate
need of a period of renewal outside government. Nor that the
chances of a new grand coalition, according to Berlin-watchers,
float somewhere between 40% and 60%. (As The Economist went
to press an SPD convention was preparing to vote on whether to
open talks.) Nor even that the party’s base is more interested in
domestic policy, like health care and taxation, than reinventing
Europe. Germany’s reluctance to lead the EU runs deeper than
these incidentals.
On the euro, the former sense that the stars were aligned for
an overhaul of the currency’s architecture has shrivelled into a
ORso longthe lastman standingin Europe, Germanyhas sud- smallerhope that the half-built bankingunion may inch towards
Fdenly become its Sleeping Beauty. Several Princes Charming completion—and officials in Berlin, eyeing Italy’s debt-laden
are gathered around the bed, desperate to rouse the princess from lenders, are not even sure about that. The Germans dismiss re-
her slumber. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, urges Ger- form plans unveiled by the European Commission this week as a
many to wake up for the sake of Europe. Brussels anxiously pointless Brussels power grab, and think that a summit of euro-
watches the princess’s repose. Even Alexis Tsipras, who as zone heads of government on December 15th, the first for over
Greece’s prime minister is more used to taking instructions from two years, is a waste oftime. These are not signs ofa country in a
Berlin than givingthem, has been whisperinginto herear. rush to reform.
Europeans complain about the results of German leadership
when they receive it, but do not much like its absence. In 2011Ra- Wake up
dek Sikorski, then Polish foreign minister, declared himself less Germany’s conviction that the problems of the euro zone are
fearful of German power than German inaction. Today, as Ger- merely those of ill-disciplined states, encouraged by a recklessly
many clumsily grapples with the result of its inconclusive elec- expansionary monetary policy, has only grown. The fearsome fi-
tion in September, much ofEurope finds itselfin a similar spot. nance ministry remains hyper-alert to hints that German taxpay-
It is all so frustrating. When France elected an avowedly re- ers’ money might be used to fund the misbehaviour of others,
formist president in May, Germany seemed to have found the whether through fiscal transfers, financial risk-sharing or any
partner it had long claimed to seek. Two days after Germany’s other villainous scheme. It is a defensive strategy, and largely un-
election Mr Macron, who barely blinks without first considering plugged from debates in other countries. “There’s almost an in-
the reaction in Berlin, delivered an ambitious speech on Euro- tention not to look at the rest of Europe,” sighs Marcel Fratzscher
pean reform calibrated not to antagonise Angela Merkel’s gov- at the German Institute forEconomic Research.
ernment. Some Germans are wringing their hands that he still Prospects for a grand bargain with Mr Macron on security are
awaits an answer. “France is ready for a European revolution and only slightly brighter. German officials say his speech offered
it is Germany that is pulling the brakes,” Martin Schulz, leader of nothing new. Mrs Merkel’s team think they have effected a huge
Germany’s Social Democrats (SDP), told DerSpiegel, a weekly. change in Germany’s approach to the world; it now directs Euro-
But Mrs Merkel cuts a diminished figure these days. Leading pean foreign policyin trouble-spotslike the Western Balkans and
herChristian Democrats(CDU) to theirworstelection result since Ukraine. But outsiders, includingin the United States, still lament
1949 was the first wound. The second came when Christian Germany’s utter lack of strategic culture. A survey this week
Lindner, pugnacious leader of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), found that Germans want more EU defence, but want to pay no
blew up her bid to form a “Jamaica” coalition with his party and more forit. You might say they wish to have theircake and eat it.
the Greens. Soon afterwards the German agriculture minister Mrs Merkel’s officials bristle at suggestions that Germany has
went rogue in Brussels, voting against a European Union weed- done nothing: look how far the chancellor has moved on bail-
killerban withoutfirstcheckingwith hiscolleaguesin Berlin. Mrs outs and risk-sharing in recent years. But as Kersti Kaljulaid, Esto-
Merkel isnotto blame forall this, butitcontributes to a sense that nia’s president, says, “When the crisis abated, the enthusiasm
the chancelloris increasingly at the mercy ofevents. was gone.” Maybe the status quo suits Germany too well. Eu-
Optimists, inside and outside Germany, say a government rope’s economies are growing nicely and refugees are no longer
withoutthe FDP could be a blessingin disguise, even ifit will take pouring in. At home unemployment is rock-bottom and the trea-
awhile to build. The puritanical MrLindneronce wanted to abol- sury’scoffersare spillingover. Ittooka centuryforSleeping Beau-
ish the euro’s bail-out fund and kick Greece out. (In opposition, ty to awaken. In the meantime most ofherwould-be suitors died
along with the far-right Alternative for Germany, his party will in the thorns that surrounded herkeep. 7