Page 57 - The Economist

The Economist December 9th 2017 Britain 57
2 a consultancy, notes that throughout the ed earlierofthe depth ofsuch studies. ingly, notall ofthose hoped-forefficiencies
negotiationstheEU hasalwaysbeen sever- In truth, MrsMay’sBrexitred lineswere look likely to be realised. Malcolm Chal-
al steps ahead of Britain. Whereas the Brit- misconceived. Just as when countries try mersofthe Royal United ServicesInstitute,
ish cabinet has not even discussed the fu- to join the club, the EU sets the terms. Tory a defence and security think-tank, points
ture relationship, Brussels has already Brexiteers have now had to swallow a big outthat, forexample, the 30% savingon the
prepared its negotiating guidelines. As ifto exit bill, an implicit role for European civilian workforce that the Ministry of De-
illustrate his ill-preparedness, Mr Davis judges, and now some regulatory align- fence has pencilled in can be fully
breezily admitted to a parliamentary com- ment—all in exchange for a trade deal that achieved only through outsourcing, which
mittee this week that the government had may be little better than Canada’s. They may be cheaper but which still has to be
made no impact assessments of Brexit on could yet be vindicated. But some may paid for.
different industries, despite having boast- start to wonderwhat Brexit is really for. 7 Further pressures on the defence bud-
get are coming from all sides. The pound’s
depreciation since the Brexit referendum
has added to the £178bn bill earmarked for
equipment over ten years, 12% of which is
to be paid in dollars or euros. The cost of
the programme to replace Britain’s ageing
ballistic-missile submarines has crept up
to £31bn, with another £10bn put aside for
“contingencies”. Ever more money must
be found for advanced cyber-capabilities.
Previous assumptions about a prolonged
freeze on forces’ pay are almost certain to
prove untenable as other public sector
workers secure pay increases.
The result is that the Ministry of De-
fence is desperately seeking ways to find
savings ofaround £2bn a year, at least until
2022 and probably for five years after that.
Exactly how the axe will fall is likely to be
determined by a review of “national-secu-
rity capabilities” that is expected to report
early next year—a delay supposedly to al-
low the recently appointed defence secre-
tary, Gavin Williamson, time to get a grip
The defence budget on his new brief.
There are already some indications of
Shoulder pips squeaking the waythingsare going. The navy, says Mr
Chalmers, has made clear that its priorities
are the nuclear deterrent, aircraft-carrier
strike capacity (two new carriers are in the
process of entering service), and the attack
submarine force. The result is that Britain’s
amphibious capabilities are expected to
The armed forces brace themselves forcuts
take the hit, with two assault ships taken
NY hope that a chancellor of the exche- But it does not tell the full story. The outofservice and the numberofRoyal Ma-
Aquerwho isa formerdefence secretary most recent defence review, in 2015, was rines cut by15%.
might have taken a sympathetic view of ambitious both in its goals for spending on The armyisalso likelyto suffer. The gov-
the plight of Britain’s squeezed armed new kit and in finding the savings to help ernment had promised not to go lower
forces was dashed by the budget on No- pay for it. A big chunkofthose savings was than 82,000 soldiers, but the current figure
vember 22nd. Voters’ alarm about the to come from efficiency gains. Unsurpris- is around 77,400 and there are fears that it
wheezingcondition ofthe National Health could go as low as 60,000. American gen-
Service persuaded Philip Hammond to erals are worried that Britain would be
provide an extra dollop of cash for health, Battle of the budgets hard put to deploy a division (about
but there is no equivalent constituency ex- Britain, departmental budgets 20,000 troops) alongside their forces in a
pressing worry at the erosion of the coun- 2009-10=100 (real terms) future European war. The House of Com-
PLANNED
try’s defensive capabilities. And despite 140 mons defence committee warned earlier
Home Office 2019-20, £bn
his stint at the Ministry of Defence in 120 this year that, even at the previous num-
2011-14, Mr Hammond appears resistant to Health 123.2 bers, the “credibility of the warfighting di-
the sound of shoulder pips squeaking on 10.6 100 vision will be undermined”. Mr Chalmers
the otherside ofWhitehall. 36.2 thinks an expedient fudge on army size
80
Britain is committed to spending the Foreign Office Defence could be found, but there may be a price to
equivalentof2% ofitsGDP on defence, and 60 be paid in terms of urgently needed new
so the £35bn ($47bn) defence budget is due 1.3 40 armoured vehicles.
to rise by0.5% in real termsovereach of the Local government 12.9 Four years ago the then-chief of the de-
next five years. That is a much more gener- 20 fence staff, General Sir Nick Houghton,
ous settlement than some other central 2010 12 14 16 18 20 sounded the alarm about manpower cuts
government departments have been Fiscal years ending March resulting in a “hollow force”. He could see
awarded (see chart). Source: HM Treasury what was coming. 7