Page 52 - The Economist

52 Europe The Economist December 9th 2017
2 disrupted a sting operation investigating committee, from his post. It also tried to na, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel,
the deputy head of the immigration ser- push through a law to remove NABU’s in- they noted, all have intermediate-range
vice, who had allegedly offered to sell Uk- dependence, but backed down in the face missiles.) Another reason why America
rainian citizenship to foreigners for of protests from civil-society activists and hesitated to retaliate was that it was fo-
$30,000. NABU’s undercover agent was in the IMF, which funds Ukraine’s debt. cused on deploying new troops to NATO’s
the process of handing over a “bribe” The oligarchs are confident that Ameri- eastern members, who were worried by
when she was arrested by the prosecutor ca lacks the will to back up its rhetoric. Ad- Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. The
general’s men. The agent was later re- mitting that Ukraine is corrupt and dys- threatto the treatywasseen asa slow-burn
leased, but the operation had been foiled. functional would prompt uncomfortable problem that could be addressed later.
Artem Sytnik, the head of NABU, says his questions among American voters about That time appears to have come. In Feb-
agency is outmatched: “All we have is our their country’s involvement and sanctions ruary Donald Trump’s administration re-
integrity and our conviction that we are against Russia. vealed that Russia had secretly begun de-
doingthe right thing.” Mr Poroshenko, whose popularity rests ploying the new missile, known as the
Both the EU and the American govern- on the war with Russia, casts his internal SSC-8, a ground-launched variant of the
ment issued strongly worded statements. opponents as Russian agents. His prosecu- 3M14 naval cruise missile used on targets in
“These actions appear to be part of an ef- tor general accuses Mr Saakashvili of try- Syria two years ago. The SSC-8 can be
fort to undermine independent anti-cor- ing to mount a coup on Russia’s behalf. In moved by road and has a range of 2,500
ruption institutions that the United States fact, the coup is being mounted in Kiev, km. The Russians have two operational
and others have helped support,” the State whose rulers are pushing their country battalions, each with about 36 missiles.
Department said. The ruling coalition re- away from the West. As Mr Poroshenko’s One is thought still to be at the Kapustin
sponded with contempt, crippling NABU approval rating falls, Ukrainians’ positive Yar test site near Volgograd, the other at a
by removing its main political backer, the attitudes towards Russia are rising. Mr Pu- base in the central military district that
head of the parliament’s anti-corruption tin must be enjoyingthe show. 7 puts it in range oftargets across Europe.
The Trump administration is expected
to publish its Nuclear Posture Review early
Arms control in Europe next year, which will guide its nuclear
A treaty in peril weapons policy. Officials are seeking ways
to bring Russia back into compliance with
the treaty rather than walking away from
it. But some in the administration are scep-
tical about all arms-control agreements,
and the INFtreatyin particular. Lastmonth
Congress authorised the Pentagon to
spend $58m on a response. The plan in-
The unravelling ofthe INFtreatyundermines a symbol ofdétente
cludesinitial developmentofa newAmer-
HIRTY years ago, Ronald Reagan and months after Vladimir Putin annexed Cri- ican intermediate-range missile. That
TMikhail Gorbachev signed the Inter- mea. The treaty obliges both countries not would not breach the treaty, but most
mediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, to possess, “produce or flight-test” new in- arms-control experts regard it as a step in
banishing an entire category of destabilis- termediate-range ground-launched mis- the wrongdirection. Producingsuch a mis-
ing weapons from Europe. Some 2,700 siles. Russia, the Americans said, had test- sile would take many years and cost bil-
ground-launched ballistic and cruise mis- ed a cruise missile that breached that lions of dollars that the Pentagon can ill af-
siles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 agreement. No countermeasureswere pro- ford. The effort to persuade European
km were destroyed in a deal that presaged posed, apparently in the hope that the Rus- members of NATO to host the missiles
the end ofthe cold war. Yettodaythe treaty sians would be embarrassed into quietly would divide the alliance, and the Rus-
is imperiled by Russian violations. If those abandoningthe new system. sians could claim that not they, but the
do not cause it to collapse, the response The Russiansdenied the charge, though Americans, had blown up the treaty.
America is contemplatingmay. they had been complaining about the Steven Pifer, a former arms-control ne-
America first announced its concerns treaty for years, saying it blocked them gotiator at the Brookings Institution, a
over Russian violations in 2014, a few from deterring new missile powers. (Chi- think-tank, says that it makes no sense to
give Mr Putin exactly what he wants. He
reckons there are better ways to put pres-
UNITED
A TL ANTIC
STATES sure on Russia. One would be deploying
OCEAN AR CTIC OCEAN
existing air- and sea-launched cruise mis-
siles to Europe and nearby waters. B-1 stra-
BRITAIN tegic bombers armed with stand-off mis-
siles could be stationed at Fairford, an
FRANCE
GERMANY American base in Britain. Submarines car-
Kaliningrad rying cruise missiles might turn up on pa-
Moscow trol in the North Sea. Mr Pifer also thinks it
UKRAINE R USSIA ishigh time thatAmerica’sEuropean allies,
Kapustin Yar in particular France and Germany, criti-
Selikhino
Crimea cised the Kremlin’s behaviour, which is a
Irkutsk
threat not just to the treaty but to them.
ISRAEL SYRIA It may be too late to save the INF treaty,
but it is worth an effort. If the treaty dies,
Beijing N. KOREA
the prospectsforextendingthe NewSTART
strategic weapons deal, which will other-
Russian ground-launched cruise missiles (range: 2,500km) P A CIFIC
Selected basing locations Source: Brookings Institution C HINA OCEAN wise expire in 2021, will be dim. So will the
future ofnuclear-arms control itself. 7