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Britain
56 The Economist December 9th 2017

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57 The defence budget
58 Bagehot: Social mobility gets stuck

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The Brexit negotiations alignment for Northern Ireland would ap-
False summit plyto the entire country, he infuriated Tory
Brexiteers, since this seems to dash their
dream of escaping all EU rules and doing
free-trade deals with third countries. One
Tory MP, Jacob Rees-Mogg, begged Mrs
May to repaint red lines that were “begin-
ning to look a little bit pink”. In effect, the
Theresa Maygets a Northern Irish lesson in howhard itis to complete phase one of DUP has accelerated debate within the
the Brexittalks. Justwaitforphase two
cabinet and party about the end-goal for
EW things are as flexible as a dead- would be deeplyproblematicforthe Good Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Fline—as Northern Ireland’s politicians Friday Agreement that underpins peace in What next? There is just enough time to
know well. They have spent most of this the province. find a fudged form ofwords that would al-
yearignoringdeadlines set in Westminster Mrs May proposed that Northern Ire- low Mrs May to meet her hopes of suffi-
for the conclusion oftalks to restore the de- land observe “continued regulatory align- cient progress. OtherEU leaders are almost
volved government in Belfast, which has ment” for most goods, including agricul- aseagerto move on asshe is. And although
been suspended since January. On Decem- ture. Butthe DUP, which wasnotconsulted the DUP is notoriously intransigent, the
ber 4th they forced Theresa May to break about these words in advance, objected party must back down eventually, if only
another deadline, when they vetoed her that they might mean Northern Ireland because it fears two things even more than
plan to move the Brexit talks forward. having different rules from the rest of the aseparate statusforthe province: a no-deal
Mrs May had been told by the Euro- UK—and even a borderin the Irish Sea. Brexit that would instantly impose a hard
pean Union that she had until this date to As we went to press, Mrs May was still border, and a government collapse in
come up with enough concessions on the seeking a way forward. The DUP’s leader, Westminster that could propel Labour’s
Brexit divorce to have a chance ofpersuad- Arlene Foster, wasdemandingbigchanges. Jeremy Corbyn to power.
ing the EU summit on December 14th-15th The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, Yet Mrs May’s troubles have only just
to agree that“sufficientprogress” had been who had agreed to Mrs May’s formula, begun. Charles Grant of the Centre for
made to move on to discussing the future said he was surprised and disappointed it European Reform, a London-based think-
relationship. The prime minister duly flew had not been accepted. Mr Juncker said his tank, argues that phase two will be much
that day to Brussels to lunch with Jean- door was open, though EU officials said a tougher to negotiate than phase one. The
Claude Juncker, the European Commis- deal must be done by the weekend. clock is ticking towards March 29th 2019,
sion’s president. But at the last minute, Even ifMrs May can find a way to make when Brexit is due to happen. It will be
Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist all sides agree, her bigger problem is that hard to agree on a legally watertight, time-
Party (DUP), whose ten MPs Mrs May the DUP’s bombshell has set offothers. Po- limited transition, notleastbecause fewex-
needs for her ruling majority, stepped in to litical leaders from Scotland, Wales and perts think a new trade deal can be
block a concession aimed at averting a even London were quick to say that, if wrapped up (and ratified) within two
hard border between Northern Ireland Northern Ireland got special treatment to years. And when it comes to the trade deal
and the Irish Republic. improve its access to the EU’s single mar- on offer, the EU will say that, if Britain in-
The border was always bound to be ket, they should have a similar deal. Ruth sists on leaving the single market and cus-
tricky. Today it is completely open, with no Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, chimed tomsunion and retainingthe option of reg-
controls. But if the United Kingdom leaves in on the importance of preserving the in- ulatory divergence, it can only have a deal
the EU’s single market and customs union tegrity ofthe UK. similar to Canada’s, which covers most
while Ireland remains in both, it seems im- But when David Davis, the Brexit secre- goods but barely any services.
possible to avoid frontier checks. And that tary, then declared that any regulatory Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, 1