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RESILIENCE

        about how to catalyze such recovery   Coral resilience                        systematic resilience and avoid cas-
        processes is important. However,  if  With shrinking recovery windows between bleaching events, future   cading failures across reef systems.
        climate change continues unabated,   resilience may come not from the ability of corals to recover, but from   On a global scale, are  a few  ref-
        resilience  may come  not from the  their ability to resist the impacts of climate change.  uges enough?  The  fossil record
        ability of coral reefs to  recover  but                                       shows repeatedly that after histori-
        from their ability to resist.   Intrinsic resistance  Extrinsic resistance    cal mass extinction events, small,
          The  idea of  protecting resistant  Natural “super coral” traits could   Deeper reefs and colder waters   isolated, and ephemeral refuges
        species or resistant areas is not new,   underpin new technologies.   might provide refuges for corals.  protected critical remnant popula-
        but for various reasons, it is not of-                                        tions that seeded recovery and were
        ten put into practice. To increase                                            crucial for the persistence of biodi-
        ecosystem resistance to climate                                               versity (13). On contemporary coral
        change, there are two options: to in-                                         reefs, even small areas of high coral
        crease intrinsic resistance, provided                                         cover can produce abundant, high-
        by traits that allow species to cope                                          quality  larvae  (14). Finding and
        with  a changing climate, or to in-                                           protecting even the  smallest of re-
        crease extrinsic resistance, provided   Super  Coral  Greater         Cool    sistant refuges is an urgent priority
        by locations that are less vulnerable   corals    garden    depth     currents    for global conservation efforts.
        to climate disturbances.
                                      Connecting survivors
                                      Even a few small, coral-rich refuges could act as sources of adaptations   WHEN RESILIENCE RUNS OUT
        INTRINSIC RESISTANCE:         and propagules that can seed other reefs.       Whether  marine ecosystems  resist,
        “SUPER” CORALS                                                                recover, restructure, or vanish hinges
        Individuals  or  species  that survive  Sharing adaptations       Bleached reef  on how extreme future climate change
                                               over long distances
        extreme climate  events  can  have                                            is. It is almost  certain that most
        traits that underpin  a general abil-                                         of today’s coral reefs  will be  trans-  Downloaded from
        ity to cope or adapt to new envi-                 Healthy reef                formed beyond recognition in the
        ronmental conditions. For corals,                                             coming decades. Shifts in coral com-
        resistant traits include  tolerance to                         Reseeding events  munities toward smaller, weedier spe-
        warmer and acidified waters, salin-                                           cies and dominance by other groups,
        ity fluctuations, herbicides, diseases,                                       such as algae and sponges, will alter
        and storms (4). These traits might be associ-  done using  a “portfolio-like” approach to  ecosystem functioning and  reduce  the ser-
        ated  with aspects of the  coral microbiome  conservation that maximizes diversity and  vices that coral reefs provide to society (15).
        (5), or the ability of corals to draw on energy   connectivity among populations.  Protecting  These ecological shifts will force millions   http://science.sciencemag.org/
        reserves  or  flexible feeding  strategies  (6).   populations across the broadest range of en-  of people to adapt and change how they use
        Natural populations of  “super corals” that  vironments (including degraded reefs)  can  and depend on the fisheries,  tourism,  and
        are  tolerant of  stressful conditions might  provide  new combinations of genotypes or  coastal protection provided by coral reefs.
        arise after  repeated bleaching  events  (7)   species, some  of  which might cope with fu-  The political will necessary to improve
        or in more  variable  thermal environments,  ture climate conditions (10).   the resilience of coral reefs or marine eco-
        such as reefs exposed to tidal heat pulses (8).                         systems might or might not materialize in
          A better understanding of natural super   EXTRINSIC RESISTANCE: A FEW   time. Regardless, any fight for the remain-
        corals might lead to innovative technologies   GOOD REFUGES             ing “reefs of hope”  can,  and  must, occur  on March 1, 2018
        of assisted gene flow and assisted evolution   Cool currents and deeper reefs might be ar-  alongside improving the resilience of peo-
        that can help to climate-harden corals (see   eas where corals can persist. Today, however,   ple and communities to help dampen the
        the figure). However, artificially increasing   such spatial  refuges are increasingly rare.  coming climate shocks. j
        the resistance of corals to warmer and more   A case in point is the  Great Barrier  Reef,
                                                                                REFERENCES
        acidic oceans through genetic engineering  where successive bleaching  events in  1998,
                                                                                  1.   T. P. Hughes et al., Science359, 80 (2018).
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        these approaches are underway  in  the  lab  across vast  areas, with  no evidence  that lo-  M. S. Pratchett, Science340, 69 (2013).
        for a handful of the 1000 or so known spe-  cal management led to better outcomes (11).     3.   N. A. J. Graham, S. Jennings, M. A. MacNeil, D. Mouillot,
                                                                                   S. K. Wilson, Nature518, 94 (2015).
        cies of corals.                     But some refuges still exist. Because of their
                                                                                  4.   M. J. H. van Oppen et al., Glob. Change Biol.23, 3437
          Can such emerging technologies be used   locations, about 100, or 3%, of the 3800 reefs   (2017).
        to cost-effectively restore high-diversity reefs   of  the Great  Barrier  Reef  system  appear  to    5.   T. D. Ainsworth, R. D. Gates, Science352, 1518 (2016).
                                                                                  6.   A. G. Grottoli, D. Tchernov, G. Winters, Front. Mar. Sci. 4, 215
        at scales of hundreds or thousands of square   have a relatively low risk of exposure to coral
                                                                                   (2017).
        kilometers? The answer right now is no, but   bleaching  and predator outbreaks. These    7.   T. R. McClanahan, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.570, 71 (2017).
        efforts to assess the feasibility of large-scale   refuges are highly connected to  other  reefs    8.   L. J. Ruiz-Jones, S. R. Palumbi, Sci. Adv.3, e1601298
                                                                                   (2017).
        restoration might change this answer in the   by ocean currents. In a single  reproductive
                                                                                  9.   K. Anthony et al., Nat. Ecol. Evol.1, 1420 (2017).
        future. A prime example is Australia’s recent   event, these reefs could resupply larvae to up     10.   M. S. Webster et al., Trends Ecol. Evol.32, 167 (2017).
        announcement of a 10-year Reef Restoration   to half of all other reefs in the system (12).     11.   T. P. Hughes et al., Nature543, 373 (2017).
                                                                                  12.   K. Hock et al., PLOS Biol.15, e2003355 (2017).
                                              Pessimists will caution against
        and Adaptation Program. As the options to
                                                                          pre-
                                                                       the
      GRAPHIC: C. BICKEL/SCIENCE  would be unwise to turn our backs on poten-  but optimists will see “reefs of hope.” Stra-    14.   A. C. Hartmann, K. L. Marhaver, M. J. A. Vermeij, Conserv.
                                                                                  13.   A. Godbold, S. Schoepfer, S. Shen, C. M. Henderson,
                                            cariousness of such a small number of reefs,
        protect corals from climate change vanish, it
                                                                                   Geology45, 607 (2017).
                                                                                   Lett. 10.1111/conl.12410 (2017).
                                            tegically protecting these few source
        tially beneficial technologies.
                                                                         reefs
                                                                                  15.   L. Alvarez-Filip, J. P. Carricart-Ganivet, G. Horta-Puga,
                                            (see the figure)
          We can also help nature “pick the winners”
                                                         will not address
                                                                      the
                                                                          root
                                                                                   R. Iglesias-Prieto, Sci. Rep.3, 3486 (2013).
        by preserving the raw material for natural
                                            cause of the coral reef crisis—greenhouse
        selection, i.e., genetic diversity. This can
                                                                                                  10.1126/science.aas9852
        SCIENCE  sciencemag.org        be   gas emissions—but it is a chance to support   2 MARCH 2018 • VOL 359 ISSUE 6379    987
                                                       Published by AAAS
   DA_0302Perspectives.indd   987                                                                            2/28/18   11:03 AM
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