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INSIGHTS  |  PERSPECTIVES  |  RESILIENCE

        ECOLOGY                                                                  In another study, Poorter et al. (5) exam-
                                                                                ined recovery  rates  of  45  Neotropical  for-
        What makes a terrestrial                                                est sites after clearance from 1500 records
                                                                                                       Even
                                                                                                           on
                                                                                spanning the past
                                                                                                 years.
                                                                                                              this
                                                                                               20
        ecosystem resilient?                                                    shorter time scale, the authors found strong
                                                                                          and
                                                                                geographical
                                                                                                            in re-
                                                                                              climatic variation
                                                                                covery rates, with seasonally dry forests ap-
        A complex set of biotic and abiotic factors determines                  pearing to have less resilience than that of
                                                                                humid tropical lowland forests.
        the resilience of an ecosystem                                           Innovative  analysis of  satellite  imagery
                                                                                is  starting  to provide  another  important
                                                                                data  set for  determining  spatial  patterns
        By Kathy J. Willis,  Elizabeth S. Jeffers,    climatic perturbation and is thus often dis-  of resilience (6, 7). For example, Seddon et
                      1,2
                                       2
        Carolina Tovar 1                    carded; a data record that shows no change   al.  (6)  used  monthly  Moderate  Resolution
                                            is harder to publish.               Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satel-
                ith increasing incidence of ex-  In recent years, new sources of ecological   lite data, taken globally at 5-km resolution
                treme climatic events,  disease  data and algorithms for analyzing resilience   between  2000 and  2013,  to develop  a veg-
                outbreaks, and other environ-  have begun to provide answers to the three   etation  sensitivity  index  that captures  the
                mental  perturbations,  conser-  questions posed above. These studies have   relationship between  climatic  anomalies
                vation  of  terrestrial  ecosystems  been carried out in almost every terrestrial   and relative variance of the vegetation (see
        W that can      retain  their  structure  biome (3); here, we focus on those under-  the figure, left). This method identifies how
        and function despite environmental shocks   taken in tropical ecosystems.  sensitive different regions of vegetation
        has moved rapidly up the international po-                              have  been  to  climatic  variability  over  the
        litical agenda. International environmental   WHERE ARE THE MOST RESILIENT   past 14 years. In the tropics, more resilient   Downloaded from
        policies and targets such as the Aichi Biodi-  TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS?     areas included the woody savannas  of  the
        versity  Targets  and  the  Sustainable  Devel-  Data  sets normally  used  to examine  other  Brazilian  Cerrado  and the  drylands  of  the
        opment Goals  include  conserving  resilient  ecological phenomena have  recently  been  Sahel. By contrast,  vegetation  in  parts  of
        ecosystems as a key priority.       analyzed to determine both forms of resil-  the West Africa and the Amazon basins was
          An  ecosystem  can  display resilience  in  at  ience. Cole et al. (4), for example, used data   highly sensitive to climatic perturbations.
        least two ways: in the ability to resist an en-  from fossil pollen records to compare tropi-
        vironmental perturbation and not switch to   cal forest recovery rates after perturbations   WHAT ATTRIBUTES PROVIDE RESILIENCE?
        another state, and in how quickly it recovers   between  and  within  regions.  In  a meta-  In addition to showing relative patterns of   http://science.sciencemag.org/
        after  the  disturbance  (1). However, research  analysis, they  examined  283  forest  distur-  resilience, these spatial and temporal rec-
        into  what  makes  a terrestrial  eco-                                        ords provide important data  sets
        system  resilient  is  complex. Many                                          with which to test the many hypoth-
        hypotheses have been proposed, sug-                                           eses relating to resilience (1, 2) and
        gesting a suite of possible abiotic and                                       the complexity  of  the  interacting
        biotic attributes responsible for resil-                                      biotic and abiotic factors that  can
        ience (1, 2). Understanding resilience                                        lead to it (2). For example, a key abi-
        also  requires  comparative  data  sets                                       otic attribute hypothesized to influ-  on March 1, 2018
        that  span  both  space  and  time  and                                       ence resilience is climate, and there
        that address at least three questions:                                        is some evidence  emerging  to  sup-
        Where are the most resilient ecosys-                                          port this. In Neotropical dry forests,
        tems, what  attributes  make  them                                            the highest  rates  of  above-ground
        more  resilient than  others, and  how                                        biomass recovery after clearance oc-
        close  is  an  ecosystem to losing  its                                       curred in regions with higher local
        resilience?                                                                   rainfall and lower water deficit (the
          The  first  step  toward addressing                                         difference between potential evapo-
        these questions is to find  data  sets                                        transpiration and rainfall) (5).
        demonstrating  that particular  eco-                                           Other  studies  have  hypothesized
        systems display  resilience.  Some                                            that the number of times an ecosys-
        projects fail at this hurdle. It is of-                                       tem is disturbed, the less resilient it
        ten difficult  to  find  data  sets  span-                                    becomes,  as  indicated  by  a  slowing
        ning a  long  enough  time  to  record  Species richness, as in this West African tropical rain forest, may not   down  in  recovery  rates  after  each
        the response of an ecosystem to an   always provide resilience to external perturbations (see the figure).  subsequent  disturbance.  However,
        environmental  perturbation,  espe-                                           this  relationship  does  not  always
        cially in forested ecosystems with trees that   bance and recovery  events  over the  past  hold  true,  especially  over  longer  time inter-
        have decades-long  generation  times.  Fur-  20,000 years in Central and South Ameri-  vals.  Cole  et al.  (4),  for  example, found  the
        thermore, the record of a resistant ecosys-  can, African, and Asian  rain  forest  blocks.  opposite  effect  in  the  fossil  tropical  forest PHOTO: FABIAN PLOCK/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
        tem will display no change despite a known   They  found  substantial  spatial  differences  data sets; the more times a system was dis-
                                            in recovery rates; Central American tropical   turbed,  the  faster  it  recovered,  presumably
                                            rain forests appeared to recover faster from   because  the  vegetation became  dominated
        1                          2
        Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond TW9 3AB, UK.  Oxford
        Long-term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology,   environmental perturbations than those in   by  forest species  that could  tolerate  and  re-
        University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. Email: k.willis@kew.org  South America and Asia.   spond  quickly to  disturbance.  The  type  of
        988    2 MARCH 2018 • VOL 359 ISSUE 6379                                               sciencemag.org  SCIENCE
                                                       Published by AAAS

   DA_0302Perspectives.indd   988                                                                            2/28/18   11:03 AM
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