Page 54 - The Economist20171214

54 International The Economist December 16th 2017
2 lic ofa problem that is unfolding so slowly behaviour of previous American delega-
that is easy to ignore. But unless political Climate conditions tions and the one Mr Trump sent to Bonn.
leaders like Messrs Macron, Emanuel and Global greenhouse-gas emission forecasts America has often been more involved in
Brown redouble their efforts, the prospect Gigatonnes of CO 2 equivalent, median and ranges global greenery than political rhetoric
of keeping global warming to under 2°C Nationally determined contributions would suggest, says John Vogler of Keele
looks poor. Unconditional Conditional* University. The country’s departure from
In orderto getasmanycountries aspos- Required for less than: the Kyoto protocol, the Paris agreement’s
sible on board, the Paris agreement set an 2°C warming 1.5°C warming ill-fated predecessor, under George W.
ambitious goal but remained studiously Gaps 60 Bush did not stop Americans from attend-
Current policy trajectory
vague about how it was to be reached. By 2° 1.5° ing UN climate events. The country sends
next year the signatories are supposed to officials to meetings of the UN convention
have fleshed out precisely how to calcu- 50 on biodiversity, which it has never ratified.
late, review and ratchet up their nationally And it is still formally bound by Mr
determined contributions. Reaching con- 40 Obama’s signature on the Paris deal. In-
sensus on what counts as a reduction in deed, its withdrawal does not take effect
emissions, and who should monitor pro- until two days after the next presidential
gress, will be delicate, admits Patricia Espi- 30 election—and ifMrTrump isnotre-elected,
nosa, the head of the UN climate secretari- 2015 20 25 30 his successormight decide to stay.
at. In Bonn, striking a tentative agreement *On sufficient aid for Even if America does leave under the
on something as basic as deciding what to Source: United Nations developing countries next administration, a parallel presence is
discuss during the coming year counted as likely to continue. Delegates in Bonn were
a coup. were concerned. That suggests he intends treated to the curious spectacle ofa second
It is unfortunate that the rotating presi- China to become a global leader on the is- American delegation, as brash as the offi-
dency of COP means that the task of shep- sue. But “the Chinese are still working out cial one was low-key. It pitched a gigantic
herdingthrough the final documentfalls to what this means,” says Thomas Hale of tent outside the UN compound, luring
Poland. Unlike the French organisersof the Oxford University. Although China’s long- passers-by with free food and hosting talks
Paris COP two years ago, Poland’s populist standing policy of not meddling in other by notable American greens including Mr
Law and Justice government lacks dip- countries’ business is only selectively ad- Brown, Al Gore and Michael Bloomberg, a
lomatic nous and credibility on environ- hered to, it probably does not intend to lec- former Republican mayor of New York
mental issues. Jan Szyszko, the environ- ture others on the importance of upgrad- who now heads the financial-disclosure
ment minister, who is to chair the ing their national pledges. Even “torch- task force. The Fijian prime minister, who
proceedings, has questioned humanity’s bearing”, which sounds like China means presided over the official programme,
role in global warming and shares Mr to set an example with domestic policies stopped by. Ms Espinosa said that if the
Trump’s fondness for coal. The host city of such as switching from coal to renewables State Department reneged on its duty to re-
Katowice lies in the heart of Polish coal for generating electricity, may not amount port America’s greenhouse-gas emissions
country. Mr Brown’s take, that “Poland is to all that much in practice (see page 39). to the UN, she would accept an inventory
not exactly a hotbed of climate activism,” Thisweekin ParisMa Kai, China’svice-pre- compiled and paid for by “America’s
understates the problem. mier, insisted that a long-awaited emis- pledge”, a philanthropic effort led by Mr
sions-trading scheme will be unveiled be- Brown and MrBloomberg.
Poles apart fore January. But the plans have reportedly The pair also dined with Mr Macron
Nazhat Khan, the climate envoy from Fiji, been scaled back, and now exclude entire and touted the importance of climate ini-
which is to pass the presidency of COP to industries. tiatives by cities, states and businesses.
the Poles on the eve ofthe summit in Kato- Just as well, then, that America’s retreat Thanks to such actions, Mr Bloomberg en-
wice, nevertheless believes that agree- seems as half-hearted as China’s charge. thuses, America is already halfway to-
ment can be reached there. The presiden- For all Mr Trump’s hostility to environ- wards meeting its Paris pledge—even
cy’s role is not central to the COP process, mentalism, MsKhan saysshe spied “no ap- though that pledge has formally been
she says. Officials in Bonn said they preciable difference” between the size and abandoned. Mr Obama had promised to
doubted that the Poles would sabotage the slash emissionsby26-28% from 2005 levels
talks, for fear of global opprobrium. But by 2025. Firms and investors increasingly
these reassurances are too lukewarm to be understand that curbing climate change is
truly comforting. Christiana Figueres, Ms in theirlong-term interests, he says. Pollsin
Espinosa’s predecessor and now a climate many countries show that a majority of
campaigner, says she is nervous. citizens agree.
The longer-term outlook is also worry-
ing. Forall MrMacron’svim, France has yet Don’t forget Paris
to prove it can be as combative as America But for all the importance of subnational
used to be, complementing the EU’s more green efforts, the UN climate process is still
conciliatory tactics, says Durwood Zaelke essential. It is the only mechanism avail-
of the Institute for Governance and Sus- able for chivvying stragglers to do more.
tainable Development, a think-tank in And if global warming is to be kept within
Washington. Nor has China, which has reasonable bounds, action will be needed
seized the rhetorical high ground vacated not just by the most committed, but also
by America, matched its fine words with from those currently doing little or noth-
actions. ing. The Paris deal’s voluntary, flexible na-
In hisbigspeech to the five-yearly Com- ture means that it is national pledges,
munist Party congress in October, the backed by legislation, that collectively add
country’s president, Xi Jinping, spoke of up to global climate governance. Mr Mac-
China as a “torch-bearer” and “in the driv- ron’s summit can be judged a success if it
ing seat” as far as environmental matters reminds the world ofthis fact. 7