Page 53 - The Economist20171214

International The Economist December 16th 2017 53

bal warming “well below” 2°C compared
with pre-industrial timesby2100, and pref-
erably closer to 1.5°C. Most scientists agree
thatifthe increase ismore than 2°C, there is
a serious riskofcatastrophically higher sea
levels and more floods, superstorms and
wildfires like those that have afflicted
places from Kolkata to the Caribbean to
California this year. Greenhouse gases re-
leased by humanity have already warmed
Earth by 1°C or so since the 1870s. Because
planet-cooking carbon dioxide lingers in
the atmosphere forthousandsofyears, sta-
bilisingemissionswill notsuffice to hitthat
target. Emissions must fall, and quickly
(even into negative territory: carbon diox-
ide will need to be scrubbed from the air
somehow). Instead, they are expected to
edge up by 2% in 2017, after three years of
near-stability.
This year’s “Emissions Gap” report
from the UN, published in October, shows
that the first set of climate pledges submit-
ted by 164 countries corresponds to barely
a third of the cut in emissions needed to
keep warming below 2°C (see chart on
next page). Studies suggest that these “na-
tionally determined contributions”
(NDCs) would probably result in tempera-
tures 2.9-3.4°C higherthan in pre-industrial
times—and thatonlyiftheyare fully imple-
mented, which seems unlikely.
Climate summitry Mr Trump has said that America, the
world’s second-largest greenhouse-gas
New life for the Paris deal emitter behind China, will not honour the
NDCs submitted by his predecessor, Ba-
rack Obama. Nor will it pay into the UN’s
Green Climate Fund, set up in 2010 with
the intention of transferring $100bn a year
PARIS by 2020 to poor countries. Commitments
Aflurryofmeetings should help curb greenhouse-gas emissions. Butthe global to date put the figure closer to $70bn. And
agreementis still essential
most poor countries have made their Paris
N MAY France’s environment ministry companies agreeing to follow recent rec- pledgesconditional on rich countries help-
Imoved to an 18th-century mansion close ommendations on climate-related finan- ing them pay to adopt cleaner energy and
to the National Assembly and Elysée Pal- cial disclosures from a task force set up by adapt to a changingclimate.
ace. The relocation—and a pretentious new the Financial Stability Board, an interna-
name, the Ministry for Ecological and In- tional watchdog, reached $6.3trn. The Some summitry
clusive Transition—hint at Emmanuel Mac- World Bank said it would stop funding oil Mr Macron’s jamboree is one in a year-
ron’s desire to be seen as a global leader in and gasexploration in two years. The Euro- long series of climate get-togethers, some
the fight against climate change. pean Union pledged €9bn ($11bn) to help ofthem initiatives by green-minded politi-
Since his election to the French presi- poor countries fight climate change. The cians and some of them part of the Paris
dency seven months ago, green activists Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the deal. In November the Conference of the
have placed their hopes in Mr Macron as a world’s largest charity, said it would match Parties (COP) to the UN climate conven-
bulwark against his carbon-cuddling the €270m the EU has promised for re- tion, underwhich the Paris agreement was
American counterpart, Donald Trump. search to help poor farmers in Africa and forged, descended on Bonn for its annual
Theycame to Parisin force fora One Planet Asia adjust to global warming. pow-wow. Earlier this month city leaders
Summit on December 12th, at which Mr The flurry of announcements, and the from America and elsewhere metin Chica-
Macron hosted more than 50 world lead- pomp, were intended to breathe new life go, invited by the Democratic mayor,
ers to celebrate the anniversary of the UN into the Paris deal. America’s planned de- Rahm Emanuel, to discuss how cities can
climate compact agreed in the French capi- parture did not strike it a mortal blow, as fight climate change. California’s Demo-
tal in 2015. Mr Trump, who decided in June some greens feared it would. It may even cratic governor, Jerry Brown, is planning a
to pull America outofthatdeal, was noton have nudged the lasttwo holdouts, Nicara- similar, larger extravaganza in September
the invitation list. gua and Syria, to sign up in November. But in San Francisco. Three months after that it
Mr Macron launched a campaign to at- the pledges made so far are inadequate, will be time for the next annual COP,
tract American green technologists and cli- and many are conditional on other coun- which is due to be held in Poland.
mate scientists to move to France. Another trieskeepingtheirside ofthe bargain. Fresh All this summitry provides an opportu-
six countries joined a coalition led by Brit- momentum is sorely needed. nity for politicians and philanthropists to
ain committed to phasing out coal, bring- The Paris agreement committed signa- make further commitments. It also puts
ing the total to 26. The market value of tories to do what is necessary to keep glo- pressure on laggards and reminds the pub- 1