Page 9 - Test File

The Point

consumer î The RBI’s index of consumer sentiment,

with a base of 100 in late 2015, has fallen
No Bet oN ICRA -2 Goldman 1.6 5.8 sentIment to its lowest level
-1
Sachs
î The first signs of recent stress
ecoNomic UBS -0.4 2.5 Crisil 1.8 3.5 down In appeared in the third week of March
which ended on March 22
RecoveRy Barclays 0 3.5 S&P Global 1.8 3.5 the dumPs î In week ended April 12, the figure
touched 47.2
Ratings
î The index of current economic
iN Fy21 CMIE 0.1 6.1 Fitch 1.8 4.6 conditions has also dipped alarmingly
Solutions
Index of current
î Most agencies have sharply Fitch 0.2 1.9 Index of consumer Index of consumer economIc condItIons
sentIment
exPectatIons
lowered their GDP growth Ratings 2.5 IMF 5.8
projection for FY21 120 120 120
î GDP growth was 5.6 per SBI 1.1 India Ratings 1.9
cent in the June 2019 quarter Ecowrap 2.5 and Research 3.6
and 4.7 per cent in the 100 100 100
December 2019 quarter DBS Bank 1.5 EIU 2.1
î The reason for the expected 3.3 6 80 80 80
sharp slowdown is lockdown
imposed by the government World 1.5 Moody’s 2.5
to contain coronavirus Bank 4.8 5.3
60 60 60
Latest forecast
Previous forecast Figures in %; Source: RBI
40 40 40
24-Feb-19 12-Apr-20 24-Feb-19 12-Apr-20 24-Feb-19 12-Apr-20
Source: RBI
Incomes

suffer 45.7 % 6.25 ReveRse

Lockdown income in a survey Apr-17 Aug'18 5.75 Repo Rate
6
households
reported a fall in
Apr'19
5.5
BLow on April 12 Jun'19 4.9 at RecoRd
6
6
80 (Figures in %) î This is a sharp Jun'18 Feb'19 Oct'19
rise from 14 per
70 Households cent on March 5.75 Low
with no 22, the period Aug'17
60 change in coinciding with the
income imposition of the 5.15
50 Aug'19
Households lockdown î To encourage banks to lend
40 with fall in instead of parking surplus
income money with it, the RBI recently 4
30 Only reduced the reverse repo rate Mar'20
Households by 25 basis points to
20 with rise in 10.6 % 3.75
income Apr'20
10 3.75 %
Source: CMIE households
0 Household incomes, the least
reported rise in
Survey
01-Dec-19 08-Dec-19 15-Dec-19 22-Dec-19 29-Dec-19 05-Jan-20 12-Jan-20 19-Jan-20 26-Jan-20 02-Feb-20 09-Feb-20 16-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 01-Mar-20 08-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 05-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 December 2019 î This is the lowest reverse Source: RBI
since at least
repo rate in RBI history

8 Business Today 31 May 2020 31 May 2020 Business Today 9