Page 18 - Our Land

OUR LAND 18

BE PREPARED:

IT’S
IT’S

GETTING
GETTING

HOTTER
HOTTER

DRIER
& & DRIER

What can we expect for our country

and our lives as climate change takes hold?

Mandi Smallhorne investigates

he good, the bad and the ugly; it’s change as a semiarid country that already had a fairly HEAT WAVES AND FIRE RISKS
already becoming apparent that the tight margin on water coupled with regular droughts. But weren’t we aiming to keep the global
effect of climate change is a mixed bag. Even if we’re really lucky and rainfall continues at the average temperature increase below 2°C? Where do
Some of it can look quite pleasant same low but liveable levels, with significantly higher these wild, frightening figures come from?
(milder winters and fewer chilblains on temperatures, we’ll benefit from less of the rainfall as Unfortunately for us, not only have we not yet
Tthe Highveld, for instance); most of it evaporation will suck water off dam surfaces and out come close to doing enough to keep the increase
falls within a range from “oh dear” to very scary. of the soil faster. below that magic figure, there are also special
According to the State of Climate Change Science For rather scary detail on what those high climatic features that put much of Africa at risk of
and Technology in SA report, which was compiled by temperatures could eventually be, turn to a recent increases at least 1.5 times that of the rest of the
the Academy of Science of SA on behalf of the presentation by Johan Malherbe and Francois world in the subtropics.
department of science and technology, the broadest Engelbrecht, scientists at the Council for Scientific and In 2015, atmospheric modeller Engelbrecht and
take on climate change’s effect on us is that, “in the Industrial Research: “The Free State and North West colleagues predicted “plausible increases of 4°C to
next 30 years, the western parts of South Africa are are projected to drift into a temperature climate 6°C over the subtropics and 3°C to 5°C over the
expected to be hotter and drier than the rest of the regime not observed in recorded history. Temperature tropics by the end of the century relative to
country. More extreme weather, droughts and floods increases of 5°C to 9°C are plausible by the 2081 to present-day climate under the A2 [a low mitigation]
can be expected.” 2100 period. Significant rainfall reductions are scenario of the Special Report on Emission
Over a 50-year time frame, there will be significant projected.” Scenarios. High-impact climate events, such as
changes in what activities – especially agricultural – The southwestern Cape is also drifting into a heatwave days and high fire danger days are
are viable and where, said one of the country’s most climate regime not observed before, albeit with lower consistently projected to increase drastically in
distinguished climate scientists, Robert Scholes, projected increases in temperature. their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in
professor of systems ecology at Wits University. In January, Bloemfontein recorded temperatures in soil moisture availability are projected, even for
We have a lot of them: South African research the high 30s, so a 5°C to 9°C increase in temperature regions where increases in rainfall are plausible,
institutions and universities boast world-class would push the city into record highs and make it due to enhanced levels of evaporation.”
scientists doing world-class research in this field. seriously uncomfortable territory. The scientists warn that “these projected
“The key issue is temperature, rather than rainfall, Whether it ends up being closer to 5°C or 9°C increases, although drastic, may be conservative
especially in the arid interior,” he said. depends on how fiercely we as a species fight to given the model underestimations of observed
South Africa started down the path of climate mitigate climate change. temperature trends”.