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SCIENCEMonday 5 October 2015
Dozens of deaths likely from VW pollution dodge
SETH BORENSTEIN said Janet McCabe, act- sions is likely to have wors- cally cleaner in the United roughly finding it takes
AP Science Writer ing air quality chief for the ened pollution along the States, experts said. Also, nearly 1,300 tons of nitro-
WASHINGTON (AP) — Volk- U.S. Environmental Protec- roadways where they have the deaths from extra pol- gen oxides to cause one
swagen’s pollution-con- tion Agency. traveled, and affected the lution are dwarfed by the death. Using that calcula-
trol chicanery has not just Nitrogen oxides mostly lives of hundreds of thou- 35,000 people in the U.S. a tion and AP’s emission to-
been victimless tinkering, form smog — that murky, sands of people,” said Dan year who die in auto acci- tals, the total death figures
killing between five and 20 dirty air that makes it hard Greenbaum, president of dents and are closer to the over the past seven years
people in the United States to see and for some peo- the Health Effects Institute annual U.S. death toll of range from 12 to 69, slightly
annually in recent years, ple to breathe — but also in Boston. spider or snake bites. lower than the AP calcula-
according to an Associ- amplify a deadlier, larger “To say millions of people The AP calculated how tions.
ated Press statistical and problem: tiny particles of of people are breathing much pollution was The AP ran its calculations
computer analysis. soot. Numerous medical poor air as the result of that spewed year by year, and results by more than a
The software that the com- studies show those tiny par- is not off the mark,” said starting with that broad 10 dozen experts in emissions,
pany admitted using to ticles cause about 50,000 Greenbaum, who runs the times to 40 times emissions risk and public health. They
get around government deaths a year in the United institute that is funded by level estimate from the all confirmed the calcula-
emissions limits allowed States, mostly from heart both the EPA and the auto EPA, then factoring in mile- tions and results seemed
VWs to spew enough pol- right. One scientist had
lution to cause somewhere Clamps hold probes in the tailpipes of a 2010 Volkswagen Jetta TDI on the campus of North even done a statistical
between 16 and 94 deaths analysis on his own and
over seven years, with the Carolina State University in Raleigh, N.C., on Monday, Sept. 28, 2015. Associated Press came independently to
annual count increasing the same conclusion. The
more recently as more of problems. industry to serve as an in- age and car number totals experts were mostly univer-
the diesels were on the Nitrogen oxides can travel dependent arbiter of the from EPA, the car compa- sity professors or from re-
road. The total cost has hundreds of miles, so pol- science. ny and Kelley Blue Book. search institutes. They were
been well over $100 million. lution spewed in Pittsburgh In a response Saturday The results show an upper not environmental advo-
That’s just in the United can be felt on the East night to an earlier request and lower limit of extra ni- cates or representatives of
States. It’s likely far dead- Coast, Adams said. for comment, Volkswagen trogen oxides pollution al- auto companies.
lier and costlier in Europe, Experts calculate how said the EPA has noted lowed by VW’s subterfuge. But engineers caution that
where more VW diesels much pollution costs soci- that the affected vehicles The AP took those figures these figures come with
were sold, engineers said. ety by looking at the value do not present a safety to scientists who previously many caveats and are
Scientists and experts said of lost lives. In this case, hazard and are legal to created a sophisticated ballpark estimates. They
the death toll in Europe Adams and other said the drive. “General allegations computer program that rely on many assumptions
could be as high as hun- lost lives — valued at $8.6 regarding links between looks at air movement and and a range of potential
dreds each year, though million apiece — over- NOX emissions from these numerous epidemiological emissions per car. Air pol-
they caution that it is hard whelm other costs such as affected vehicles and spe- studies on the health ef- lution impacts on people
to take American health lost work days or hospital cific health effects are un- fects of pollutants. The re- are usually calculated
and air quality computer costs. The overall annual verified. We have received sult was a rough estimate on a local level because
models and translate them cost of the extra pollut- no confirmed reports that on deaths and costs to so- that’s where it is felt, and
to a more densely popu- ants from the VW diesels the emissions from such ve- ciety based on a certain it changes from place to
lated Europe. ranged from $40 million to hicles caused any actual amount of pollution trig- place. But these calcula-
“Statistically, we can’t $170 million, environmental health problem,” the com- gering each death. tions were broadened to a
point out who died be- engineering professors cal- pany said in a statement. The EPA has its own open national level, which adds
cause of this policy, but culated. The calculations should source computer model more uncertainty.
some people have died “Even the small increase in be put in context of air that calculates death and The computer simulation
or likely died as a result of NOx from VW diesel emis- that is getting dramati- social costs of emissions, that made the death cal-
this,” said Carnegie Mellon culations use conservative
environmental engineer medical studies as their
professor Peter Adams. He baseline. Other epidemio-
calculates the cost of air logical studies would more
pollution with a sophisticat- than double the deaths
ed computer model that and health costs, said Ad-
he and the AP used in its ams and model co-creator
analysis. Jinhyok Heo of Cornell Uni-
Computer software al- versity. Chris Frey, an engi-
lowed VW diesel cars to neering professor at North
spew between 10 to 40 Carolina State University,
times more nitrogen ox- has been testing the VW
ides (NOx) than allowed diesels in real world condi-
by regulation, making this tions, driving more than 100
“clearly a concern for air miles with monitors in the
quality and public health,” car tailpipes.q
