Page 29 - BLEEDED DIARIO 12 FEB

their role when making population proj2ger0cet1iao0tnesCrebenafrsfeuelysctasoingnndifafilccoacwnutr.daTcahytea.’ n(buimrtbhesr, odfepaetrhssonasndleamviinggratthieonis)land 668776776858589T99o50555000005505005t----------------+a7785576676688899l9499944999444444 31112123,,,,,,,332775299626114561499052025633886969491182332800 3112121113,,,,,,,,,224848268484811666424665255282877996477998306767066 115,,3923236621120149927278080887212402820383883300066 1P119A,,,493352459294311G308616450541055737505733771122700474INA 29
DI2aphAs0rosoH1wuj2eemU,cvtpEetiatorBiknoiiSsnns.sg1tMho2inenaFtnommEy iaoBgocsrfRctaottUuhiuoneAnnctReptarerItedrasn2jiuond0sns1tssm5ltealeestnsaistvtcsiiencrTfdr2irsgnueeth0iasttccte1tioahunooh0edr.erribeddvnTCielsaheetaelpeniabdddsnonrtoescradpraeueglupaatdpsnelottoaaswarrattotnniitilocfoudhttihhntppptffdeeaodhlooastpereiitow-zuesrbnePPseeloadoogtrttiihaapphspsitoettuuoeeatpnllsprphaao(ouattpfdbepriitluuooiosaurletmnnattltiaihhtmottiosoeitnoha,nRRnettdrheeeeeepePeggsssgraotDiitoiissrtpisamjamttIhetuArrriaecsselyyaaetRtreiatteoibIseonoOndasOOfndsasstffdreRthmffeeoiifedecclopiegeegraipapos..rsetrparnerntootydusipjTTtoiermoiuhhhnencnleeeaast)Mktaiionganegy 95+ 4 23 10
gradually to 65 years as of January 2015rdaeinsfaldedmcvtoaarnetlaoregwceeenrotefmmitghirgeartsaoetriyoptnoreprnaudtlsea. tItitohcnaonveewrssthitmahteaitpteeasricottduoa20lpl1yr0oisjteoac2st030 37
using the same methodology and modepfuletaousprielne ptlehoeapvPueolapthtuieloantiisolsaninzPedrowijseicttthhiooanutsttsdheeeri-errseeg2gi0iss0tte3e-r2rien0d2g3. .dTehpias rdtuocruems ent
highlights some characteristics AorfuAbaru2b0a1Trcp’es0ohe-fueop2len0rpoc3btljtee0ea’dcas,lteepedlaluodiuvnbwrepeliieonsthprhgpeueoedtlahpmiitsneuilioaglM2anrn0.taadiy1Ttoih0w2noe0niC1ttmeh2hr.noaeestturheuetosftddoh(oerTale-oarngbeiygwlseiishst2thaee)te.xripintplagoai.ncpetudulaainltliyothnise aapssaper
entitled ‘Population Projections

Economic assumptions develFTcoohepeuerdtnibtliienatCdys2edB0liu0nS3reinagpndothpueusle2ad0ti1oa0gnaCintehniensrue2sf0o1(rT0eaibsilsebat2sh)ee.d population as Total 33,169 33,858 15,073 19,385
The population projection
model on the relationship Figure 1. Age-specific fertility schedule for local and
Proyeccion di populacion 2010-2030CBtobhSeriitsgwi(ncCeuaeelrnr2ne0ttnrh1tae2lrpGeBavropiusseirsore.nDaHuooomfwSetethsvateeitcirps,P-otrhpoeudlbuapactaitsoe(nlGivnlFTDpeaehePrrvoG)eire,ojtDellisT,acPloibtdtiioostryaarnosrlesepp,taFrpoateihdtnrpeutAgiocWletiflticirvGytooii.tncmyR3oo,,am1.l2ta0eib.c52Eo(8marTsfFiislonluRirotmc)1anelp9hiwtr9doieoia1vtqnhdeutsrtiorhseaee2rsmaea.are0ksokns4ieuutpsmdnttaaudpnartndsriioneannpgpueoluttbafhnlcmiaesehidngm2eerid0vacert0enieioln0atnst.ihnIneg foreign-born women

F0i.1g4u0r0e 1. Age-specific fertility schedule for local and
f0o.1r2e0i0gn-born women
tckrlaiiiieborkepgskganocrxe)oeoprielnwtsneoaocaccctnruthehrtiesoaeraodt.1accfipnteT0ditoadhmhuuegeamtuneohñrlnnbeaedaptbrao,oerpeolowmercGypdrnpuDfieaioloioPcnrptdymccaotoeoeihvoopdeebimntusrpiaylboetaasdahopadas-ieurjuslnastettoeideppmxodctroanoisostngtmiw4yootar6ubeeeaCCdibdTl,seteacnrc5hioieeh(vaffcctiT2eennirfftyoeiias4eenhoossnblely2Trr,auuapnnlee0eeoedtessna1itlnnptrsdrar1ra0aswaccaasroe)ino.e.leennwpCdonbLgcFddepaesmiiihuauenn.bbpikaelnrs22Aoaeaentuirttg..srnrnihhe00stl,pwoiddtf.ee77trarrbeidyiAeootetTTnosddheadsnmRduFFbruuutteslRRianbiethcrrfhx2sttiiaiennetoooic.nivnwde2n2iggwffia--ilt(h08yTwwn1ettAFighhr2oonriRereenummcycccoa)1tseaoiwbfho229sdeehrninatugetn009annohtsimuetn11d1tvthaibb.arosap00ueaetntoontdkmroavitsCCoerr1iSleennbpn2ee,eialmatc,nr.nntsrtiie0buthaennnohessho4tmeuuraeueetrAAazannssidnbmemurfrr..coudrhauucnouaTTrecrrauebbcgariinhhhcemnenaaenottixeeiagelpptccddaarreoleoleeobtinnrapfuphtyesaefcdditniirmeeinnnessogtftrttdoemer2ynehhlldraneoii0einttiooetntfntnttc05chinssdrlla---20eeeeeeaat,t0leo3wi7s
Table 1. Assumptions population projectifbriseeoorln2rtatnhi20tli0ai1vet10tyel0s-lrwey2-a0w2oty10emho53seu0.ernneg.ebAr2os0ar1sng5he-oi2.nw0T2nhA0erinupbfriaog2ujeh0rca2etv0i1oe-2,n0tt2hha5eessimrumacihen2is0ldd2tir5hfef-ee2n0r2e3a0n0t1c0ea 00..11400000
00..10280000
00..01060000
00..00480000

Growth real GDP (%) relatively younger age.LoTwhescpenroarjeioction assumes the 2010 00..00260000 14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
fertility ra1.t2e6s. 00..00040000 Age group
1.19 1.12 1.06 0.0200
0.0000 14 15-1B9orn20in-2A4ru2b5a-29 30-34Fo3r5e-ig3n9 bo4r0n-44 45-49

Growth labor productivity (%) 0.5 1 1 1
Mortality 7 5 5 5
Unemployment (%) Age group
Percentage of women in the labor force In 1991, 4li9fe.8 expectancy49w.8as 71.1 yea4r9s.8for men an4d9.787.1 fEorFpmiogapuurdelia2cci.eonAnsgoeta-dsbipa2eBs0ocari1nf0riicinbclAaiofruemibneao-xpeepcataheneFchnoyerdeneaigdtnembbohiurrotnhhmer2b.0er1a,0pyes7a9r.8ppoar
fMorowrtoamliteyn. Based onMetdhieumresscuenltasrioof the 2010 Population
100
Growth real GDP (%) DafIatnohnneredd1pw9aHH9roPtoo1mmouu,pss4e2eluiii9.nnfnn1le..at8730ggtBeiCCaoxaeenpnsnnedessdcuutRtaosshe,,nnegcttihhtys41hGtee9.9rwe.ey8360nnanruuseemmOrs7aufbb1lfl.eeti1csrrSeoyooo,cefffiaa41tddtrhl9.hs7ee.ee8650aaHfott2ehhr0aPss1mlutrr0hbeeelggnPiciiIossnapttsneeuu41Hdrrlr9.eeae6a.7ddt8150an7iloctaa.nh1ett
Growth labor productivity (%) t(AheZV),PloifpeuelaxtpioenctanRceygaisttrbyirthOifnfic2e0,10thise73.P9ufbolircmeHneaalntdh Figure 2. Age-specific life expectancy at birth 2010
Unemployment (%)
Percentage of women in the labor force 80
100

60

Growth real GDP (%) (7i7DmnA99eaZ..plk88Viafi)neffr,ootglmrreifxe3ewwtph.n0eooeet710xmmcptaeeaepnnnncodtcpa((yuFFn,tiilcggahiyuutteirroaHiee2stnGi.g622behn260))ipnor..strectNNhoernooajoieanlttfcrwwit2Smoiiio0otthhun1cssci0sa2tth.aal.i3snns15M0Hdd7igeii3onnna.rggi9tlftaihcfttlohhaitreenyIncmiiesnnreu2ccanrw.rrt0aeee750hanaanecssindeees 80
Growth labor productivity (%) 40
Unemployment (%)
Percentage of women in the labor force minaliinfetaienx4ep9de.8acttaanccoy,nsittani4st9.ln8eovtelodfumrinugc4ht9h.es8igpnroifjiecactniocen4sw9. .8hen 60
Source: Population and Housing Census 2010; CBmS,aDkAiOnagnd tDhEZeHI population projections. Mortality rate is 20
maintMaiingerdataiot na constant level during the projections.
40
0

20 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Age
0
13.5D1e0p1a5r2t0u2r5e3o0Mf3af5loe4r0e4i5g5n0-b55oF6re0nm6ap5leo70p7u5la80ti8o5n90b9y5
Figur0e
duration of stay
Age

Population Projections Revised Assumptions for the distribution of duration of stay of 3 % Male Female 4

Popfuolraeitgino-nboPrnromjiegcratniotsnwseRreevgaistheedred from the Population 25
Registry Office for those for whom data on the date of

di un cantidad variabel di in- rior y ekPciokoponrfuooeemlrgsaitisiwttctuiroooayctnpwaieoadPrnsiiroappodvaojsaiel,siilc1tnai9tacbi9noloe9.n-2Ts0heER0esi1esadlkvauaniripsadpaetai2odb0mna0yoo9fbt-i2sib0btoa1ay3cd.wueInannseabcxnoattlenhcrouitolhatraet.esde base.20Pa loke ta fertelidad nota un crecemento le4ve den
teres ta desconoci y instabil. socio
esaki a conoce un drop di 2.28 expectativa di bida, sinem-

Apesar di esaki un estimacion den regiopetari,odess,pemcioarlemetnhtaen 5k0ita pnearncenot mobfer tdhie cerengsois.teAred na 191951 pa 2.04 durante censo bargo e no tin mucho nifica-
2000 y 2.07 durante census cion ora di haci proyeccion
di e crecemento di populacion Venezuelad. eSpiamrtiirnagefotrreenigdnn-abnorn phearcsiornesvisstiaoyneddelessdsethearnap5pyoertars
riba termino largo ta central prome di ponenarciAoerdmube2an0.t0o9H-oy2w0m1e3voertr-o, wfiagmedrudirmese2ne0a3tro1cs2sahdh,doiomorewtidelrsaraabdnasodtdracoailyelepaoderanenhbssuthiihsoinfteeteaniidsanlpeuanat-nhde, 2010. Tin un diferencia entre di populacion. Mortalidad ta
hend1e0muher naci na Aruba cu keda na un nivel constante.

esnan naci otro parti di mun-

Table 2. Population by place of birth,FaMowisgsrtaehealaieyeglaemnnndbodaolseFrtsnerseemnsxloaath2ltecia0vhn1eal0n2ygyleaeraignresa6Sr. g5Iugneprdtoedoeurisssepidtcsretiioibon1fungdtfiEotioorcnjeaoninognounftoa-etmbrhyioosircs2ntoeh0a1plet5eatr.vhsioennrges, do, pa5 e edad cu ta haya yiu.

Age Born in Aruba Si mira mortalidad na 1991, e Migracion y participacion
Male Female 40la4b5o5r0al55 60 65 70 75 80
on m20o3re than15805 percent Ebeimngodyeoluongdeir tphraonye5c0cioyenardsi of expec0tativa di bida tabata na
ins 71.1 aña0 pa5 h1e0n1d5e 2h0om25b3e0r 3y5
the 0-4 3,126 3,034 77.1 pa hende muher. CSeengDsuuonr,ationTininye2arps eriodo
ty, a4g3e2. As wit3h96the assumpetiopnospiunla2c0i1o2n, tdhier2e0i0s 3nocruecaent e censo di 2010, AZV, cu tin relaciona
ort- 5-9 3,168 3,048
at i5n8fo1rmation64o6n the numbweorrodfoduespaenadtreonbtse annad 2th0e1r0eftoare, PDuebplairctoame eenxtpoecdtiatiSvaalud1b9ir9ib9d-i2ad0da01 cu imigracion, 1999 - 2001
of 10-14 3,221 3,055 t9h8i7s numbe9r5i5s kept conbsatasantriabta.3r3elpaecriosonnesnpterer mGiDgrPant na nacemento na 2010 ta 73.9
2009-2013
15-19 2,790 2,573 Aruba(pprMrooidgduruaccttiitovonidadanoddmIlenastbteiocgroraalt,ibornfuotSrost)ua,dy
laboral rekeri y migracion Sigui lesa pag. 34
a9s93reported99in8 the
20-24 1,735 1,558 2904063. 1,214
25-29 1,608 1,712 Figure 4. Male labor force participation by place of birth and age

30-34 1,612 1,687 1,292 1,814 netto. Den e revision aki, E

out 35-39 1,740 1,749 1,770 2,213 suposicion economico ta basa 120

e a 40-44 1,877 1,882 1L,a95b3or Par2t,i5c5ip4ation ratersiba e GDP cu un base di 3.105 100

45-49 2,495 2,523 11Atryrsyrh,,aeeuee83126329stvtebaa160274988eioirrrs418208330ssoefssee,.mfqJdffaaouiecnsTreainuhacncbt121aaletco,,,rla945324931orcyytge360615405urheredt1059721730leaia.i,rmtrntePi2segrmaa0edblr1meeyttd5soinceustitinarpxhtintanhaemdgce5Daeeplmtgeaiepbnm2eoaoebtifrferda,gnyhnesnropo0osnooectmeeoo,lr3rhhrs.eaanznai27casedeacolatSawol0mchse.eneupt1neauneissnaleelgk0atalsartrufgiubieiswaoncCl6noeonocltreJo5ifpinoreatwcvnmrahrnanncrdsayaolieeeatulauedmdoplxicnlanasaijeburaieu,serumromcsgenymonsswcedue.tboatro1emuee-aeanonPgn,snrlci2ttreraaces2stt4oeno0enrieoi0tn6tvstuadnt22hiite,icpbcnaai50rd4etaiñoairpo21ransAy6idtwafeaedo40aa-r0i6.fthuot-i0oe6hbr.inn5n4eea 80
2,566 2,624 60
50-54 2,256 2,266 40
1,719 1,869 20
he 55-59 1,348 1,467
on) 60-64 1,249 0
65-69 952
he 70-74 603 856 15-19
ect 75-79 228 420 20-24
176 25-29
res 80-84 91 30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94

95+

as 85-89 Age groups

90-94 30 87 is 2c6alculated7t4o increase from 39.1 (2010 Census) to an local 2015 foreign 2015 local 2020
est1im0 ated 593.57 in 2015, to 81.6 in 2020 and onwards. For
95+ 4 23 15th,0e73foreig1n9-,3b8o5rn males the participation rate stood at 68.3 foreign 2020 local 2025 foreign 2025

as Total 33,169 33,858 during the 2010 Census and is estimated to increase to 77.9 local 2030 foreign 2030

in 2015 and 89.4 in 2020 and 2025 (Figure 4). Females on Figure 5. Female labor force participation by place of birth and age