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U.S. NEWSMonday 18 January 2016
Republican establishment loses hope of winning early states
JULIE PACE Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump poses for a general election, pinning
STEVE PEOPLES selfie with a young attendee during a campaign stop, Saturday, their White House hopes on
Associated Press Jan. 16, 2016, in Portsmouth, N.H. a feat no Republican has
HOLLIS, New Hampshire pulled off in modern po-
(AP) — After months of (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) litical history: securing the
predicting a comeback nomination without win-
for their preferred candi- ning at least one of the first
dates, Republican estab- two states on the calendar.
lishment leaders now con- It’s a risky strategy at best,
cede the first two contests and party officials are hop-
of the presidential nomi- ing that weaker candidates
nating race, in Iowa and will drop out before the
New Hampshire early next South Carolina primary that
month, are Donald Trump’s follows New Hampshire, al-
and Ted Cruz’s to lose. lowing voters to more eas-
That leaves many Repub- ily coalesce behind an al-
lican traditionalists, who ternative to the billionaire
fear either front-running real estate mogul and the
candidate would be a di- Texas senator.
saster in the November “I don’t know how they
can convince themselves
that they’ll be able to go
into South Carolina and
get something going, hav-
ing come in a distant third,
fourth, fifth place in Iowa
and New Hampshire,” said
Mike Dennehy, a New
Hampshire Republican op-
erative. “Especially when
you will have two candi-
dates who have been very
strong.”
Trump and Cruz are atop
the field in Iowa, where
voters caucus on Feb. 1.
Preference polls find Trump
with a commanding lead
in New Hampshire, which
votes Feb. 9, and Cruz in
the mix for second place.
The nine others in the Re-
publican race are fighting
to emerge from the pack;
there’s little sign anyone will ous contests in both states
drop out before voting be-
gins.
Among them are Florida
Sen. Marco Rubio, former
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New
Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
and Ohio Gov. John Ka-
sich. Each is competing for
the same pool of center-
right voters.
Allies of Bush and Kasich
in New Hampshire have
been trading phone calls
in recent weeks, trying to
gauge each other’s think-
ing about staying in the
race.
Campaign officials say
they have felt no direct
pressure from party leaders
to drop out before the first
two contests.
But there’s open discussion
about the need for some
of the more conventional
candidates to drop out af-
ter New Hampshire votes
on Feb. 9.
“We shouldn’t have a
whole lotta folks running,”
said Henry Barbour, a Re-
publican national commit-
teeman from Mississippi.
“The ones who don’t do
well need to get out of the
stinkin’ race.”
The risk for the more main-
stream candidates is that
Trump or Cruz generates
momentum in the first two
states, and it’s too strong
to stop as the race turns
to South Carolina and be-
yond. Since 1976, every
major party presidential
nominee has won either
Iowa or New Hampshire,
with the exception of Dem-
ocrat Bill Clinton in 1992.
To be sure, large numbers
of voters in Iowa and New
Hampshire say they’re still
undecided, and previ-
have swung in unexpected
directions just days before
the caucuses and primary.
“People in the states make
their decisions very late,”
Rubio said during a swing
through Iowa on Saturday.
“They take very seriously
their vote.”q