Page 28 - ARUBA TODAY

A28 SCIENCE
Friday 6 OctOber 2017

Science Says: Era of monster hurricanes roiling the Atlantic

BY SETH BORENSTEIN scientists use to understand creased a hell of a lot since
AP Science Writer how the climate is chang- 1970.”
WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s ing. The analysis found that So what’s going on?
not just this year. The mon- in the period from 1988 to Scientists talk about two
ster hurricanes Harvey, 2017: important factors for
Irma, Maria, Jose and Lee — There have been 90 ma- long-term hurricane ac-
that have raged across the jor hurricanes, an average tivity: man-made climate
Atlantic are contributing to of three a year. That’s 48 change and a natural pat-
what appears to be the percent more than during tern of changes in the At-
most active period for ma- the previous 30 years. This lantic.The world’s oceans
jor storms on record. hurricane season is at five go through long cycles as
And the busiest part of hur- and still counting. water circulates like a giant
ricane season isn’t even — During the past 30 years conveyor belt. They last 20
over. major hurricanes have to 30 years, carrying wa-
An analysis of 167 years of churned for an average ter with different levels of
federal storm data by The of 7.2 days. That’s 65 per- salt and temperature. That
Associated Press found cent more than the aver- cycle seems coincide with
that no 30-year period in age during the previous hurricane activity, Klotz-
history has seen this many 30 years. There have been bach said.Klotzbach pre-
major hurricanes, this many 18.8 major hurricane days dicts that a period of high
days of those whoppers so far this year.— Scien- salinity and warmer water
spinning in the Atlantic, or tists use a measure called in the North Atlantic that
this much overall energy Accumulated Cyclone has been present since
generated by those pow- Energy, or ACE, that fac- 1995 will soon fade — and
erful storms. tors in wind speed and take with it this ultra-busy
Scientists caution it is too storm duration to gauge period for storms. Other sci-
soon to draw conclusions hurricane power. The an- entists dispute this.
from the data, and they In this Sept. 11, 2017 photo, debris lies from a destroyed building nual average ACE of the More frequent and more
don’t say the intense ac- in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma in Key Largo, Fla. past 30 years is 41 percent intense storms fit what sci-
tivity confirms a trend. Associated Press more than in the previous entists expect to see ac-
Storms in the distant past and prevent worse future 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 30 years. An average year company global warming,
may have gone unno- destruction. and 2016. The 2005 season, ACE is just shy of 100 and MIT hurricane and climate
ticed, which could make Georgia Tech climate which included Katrina, this year’s ACE, with two professor Kerry Emanuel
earlier generations appear scientist Kim Cobb said Rita and Wilma, was so ac- months still to go, is 204.2. said. Physics, computer
quieter than they were. it would be “foolish” for tive forecasters ran out of — Of the last 30 years, nine simulations and numer-
Some scientists say past policymakers to ignore the names for storms. hurricane seasons were ous scientific studies show
hurricane data is so weak data. “We may not have Then came this year. Fu- considered “hyperactive” that as the world warms
that it’s impossible to con- as much data as we would eled by warmer than nor- according to the defini- the strongest storms should
nect the recent activity to like, but we have enough mal ocean temperatures tion used by the National get wetter and more in-
global warming. to aggressively invest in and ideal wind conditions, Oceanic and Atmospheric tense, and probably more
But more intense storms a variety of defenses for September 2017 had more Administration and seven frequent. Yet, the over-
are what scientists expect coastal communities,” she days with major hurricanes were above normal. Only all number of all named
to see as the planet’s cli- said in an email. “We face spinning and more overall seven years were below storms is likely to drop be-
mate changes because a triple threat of rising seas, hurricane energy expelled normal.Was it just as busy cause there will likely be
warmer ocean water is fuel stronger winds, and liter- than any month on record, for major storms in the fewer weaker ones, scien-
for hurricanes. And they ally off-the-charts rainfall according to Colorado 1930s or 1890s? The num- tists say.Still, scientists say it
say it is important to bet- totals.”The Atlantic hurri- State University hurricane bers say no, but scientists would take more years —
ter understand this current cane season was more in- researcher Phil Klotzbach. won’t draw conclusions and maybe decades — of
intense period to save lives tense than normal in 2003, Harvey spawned record because they fear a large good data to know for sure
rainfall. Irma had record undercount of storms be- if there’s a direct connec-
high winds in the open At- fore the 1960s. tion to climate change.
lantic. And Maria hit the “There’s no question that National Hurricane Center
U.S. stronger than the ear- the storms are stronger science officer Chris Land-
lier two. than they were 30 years sea said the problems with
The Associated Press ago,” said NOAA climate missing past storms are so
looked at all major hurri- and hurricane scientist severe “making any con-
canes — not just the small James Kossin. “The ques- clusions for the entire (At-
Tour to the Red Light Lipstixaruba@outlook.com fraction that hit the U.S. — tions are if you go back a lantic) basin would not
District with a Private and grouped them into little further if that’s what be justified” and several
Guide & a FREE bottle (297) 630-5329 30-year periods to mirror you’ll find. We do know for other scientists agreed with
of wine... the 30-year cycles climate sure that things have in- him.q