Page 28 - ARUBA TODAY

A28 SCIENCE
Friday 22 March 2019

Unprecedented spring flooding possible, U.S. forecasters say

By SETH BORENSTEIN and
JEFF MARTIN
Associated Press
The stage is set for unprec-
edented major flooding
this spring for most of the
nation, U.S. weather offi-
cials said Thursday.
More than 200 million
Americans are at risk for
some kind of flooding, with
13 million of them at risk of
major inundation, the Na-
tional Oceanic and Atmo-
spheric Administration said
in its spring weather outlook
. About 41 million people
are at risk of moderate
flooding.
Major flooding now oc-
curring in Nebraska, Iowa,
South Dakota, Missouri and
other Midwestern states
is a preview of an all-too-
wet and dangerous spring,
said Mary Erickson, deputy
director of the National
Weather Service. “In fact,
we expect the flooding to
get worse and more wide-
spread,” she said.
This year’s flooding “could
be worse than anything
we’ve seen in recent years,
even worse than the histor- This Wednesday, March 20, 2019 aerial photo shows flooding near the Platte River in in Plattsmouth, Neb., south of Omaha.
ic floods of 1993 and 2011 Associated Press
,” she said. Those floods Office of Water Prediction. Most of Nebraska, except ing. However, scientists said Mississippi River near sever-
caused billions of dollars “Is this the perfect storm? I right along the Missouri the conditions are consis- al Southern cities including
in damage, and officials don’t know.” River, is unlikely to see ma- tent with what they expect Arkansas City, Arkansas;
said this year’s damage in A lot depends on how jor flooding again this year, from global warming. Natchez, Mississippi; and
Nebraska, Iowa and South much rain falls in the next but the rest of the flooded In addition to the year-to- Baton Rouge, Louisiana,
Dakota has already passed couple months, Graziano area is still prone to more, year natural variability of according to river gaug-
the billion-dollar mark. said, but forecasters say it Low said. weather, there is a long- es and data from NOAA.
Forecasters said the big- will be more than average. Several factors will likely term, climate change- Since Feb. 8, about 100
gest risks include all three The Missouri River has al- combine to create a pulse driven trend that is mak- Army Corps of Engineers
Mississippi River basins, the ready set records with his- of flooding that will eventu- ing extreme rainfalls even personnel have been mon-
Red River of the North, the toric flood marks measured ally head south along the more intense, said Texas itoring levees and other
Great Lakes, plus the basins in 30 places in Nebraska, Mississippi: above average A&M University cli- flood protection in Mem-
of the eastern Missouri Riv- Iowa and South Dakota, rainfall this winter— includ- mate scientist Andrew phis; Clarksdale, Mississippi;
er, lower Ohio River, lower Kansas City forecaster Kev- ing 10 to 15 inches ear- Dessler. and Helena, Arkansas.
Cumberland River and the in Lao said. lier this year in a drenching “You can think of climate The swollen river has been
Tennessee River. The river “remains vulner- along the Ohio and Ten- change as steroids for flooding some unprotect-
“This is the broadest ex- able to moderate flooding nessee Valleys; the third these rain events,” he said. ed western Mississippi com-
panse of area in the Unit- for the remainder of the wettest year in U.S. history; University of Illinois climate munities since last month.
ed States that we’ve pro- spring and early summer,” and rapidly melting snow in scientist Donald Wuebbles, One Mississippi region pro-
jected with an elevated Lao said. “People should the Upper Midwest. co-author of a report re- tected by levees is also
risk that I can remember,” be prepared for major Extra rain will bring more leased Thursday on cli- flooding. The smaller rivers
said Thomas Graziano, a flooding along the Missouri farm runoff down the Mis- mate change and the there can’t drain into the
20-year weather service River ... going into the fu- sissippi, which will likely lead Great Lakes, said “we have Mississippi River as normal,
veteran and director of the ture.” to more oxygen-starved been seeing a significant because a floodgate that
areas in the Gulf of Mexico increase in precipitation protects the region from
and likely make the sum- coming as larger events, even worse flooding by the
mer dead zone larger than especially in the Midwest big river has been closed
normal, said Edward Clark, and Northeast, over the since Feb. 15.
director of NOAA’s Nation- last five to six decades.” It Residents around Rolling
al Water Center in Tusca- will get worse, so flooding Fork, Mississippi, first noticed
loosa, Alabama. will get to be a bigger con- water rising from swamps
It’s too early for scientists cern, he said. in late February. The water
to make the complex cal- In part of the South, it al- eventually invaded some
culations to see if human- ready is. homes in that community,
caused climate change Major flooding is already about 40 miles (65 kilome-
played a role in the flood- occurring this week on the ters) north of Vicksburg.q