Page 326 - Data Science Algorithms in a Week

Predictive Analytics for Thermal Coal Prices Using Neural Networks … 307

Results of Consensus through Delphi Method

Figure 4 shows the different variables found during the first round.

Figure 4. Result of the first round of Delphi.

Table 1. Result of the second round of Delphi

On the other hand, the purpose of the second round is to verify the agreement of the
variables with the experts. The results of this round are presented in Table 1.
In the third round of Delphi, the results of the second round were reviewed and 100%
consensus was achieved among participants. The following variables were selected:

 Demand and consumption of coal in China, US, India, and Europe.
 Laws of Environmental restriction for the exploitation and use of coal in the
United States, China, India and Europe. (Measured by level)
 Price of Natural Gas.
 Price of Oil.
 Price of electricity in China, US, India, Europe.
 Availability of Shale Gas.
 Exporters and consumers countries: Dollar exchange rate (China, Europe, India).
 Development of Renewable Energy in the United States, China, Europe, India.
 Trends in climate change.
 Cost of coal transportation (land and sea).
 Oversupply of coal in the international market.