Page 6 - The Summit of the Americas 2021

INSIDER

many countries have since then started to
gradually reopen parts of their economy,
a number of states were confronted with
subsequent waves of infections and opted
for the re-imposition of partial lockdowns.

Looking back at 2020
The COVID-19 crisis removed more
than 6.1 billion passengers for the whole
year 2020 compared to the projected
baseline (pre-COVID-19 forecast for
2020), representing a decline of 64.6% of
global passenger traffic. Compared to 2019
level, the decline is recorded at 63.3%.
Europe and the Middle East were the
two most impacted regions with declines
of 70.5% each compared to the projected
baseline.
Asia-Pacific was hit by the virus first
but embarked on recovery earlier and
faster than other regions—mostly driven
by China’s sizable domestic market. The
region closed the year 2020 with a decline
of 61.3% compared to the projected
baseline (59.8% decline compared to 2019
level). Asia-Pacific, however, recorded
the highest traffic loss of all regions with
a loss of 2.15 billion passengers in 2020
compared to the projected baseline.
Latin America-Caribbean was the least
impacted of all regions posting a decline of
61.1% compared to the projected baseline
(-59.8% compared to 2019 level).
International passenger traffic was
virtually non-existent in the second half
of 2020. International passenger volume
ended the year below 1 billion passengers,
a decrease of more than 75% compared to
2019 volume. to return to travel with the biggest surge in baseline (or -39.9% compared to 2019
Domestic passenger traffic volume Q3 and Q4 of 2021. level).
was helped by the early recovery of major Similar to 2020, Europe and the International passenger traffic is
domestic markets like China, Russia and Middle East are forecast to remain the two expected to remain weak in the first half
the U.S. Globally, domestic traffic volume most impacted regions with declines of of 2021, but early signs are pointing to a
for 2020 was recorded slightly above 2.4 58.1% and 58.9%, respectively, compared significant surge in air travel demand for
billion passengers, a decline of 54.7% to the projected baseline due to their high the second half of 2021 as an increasing
compared to 2019 volume. dependence on international travel and number of people get vaccinated and
connectivity, which are recovering at a international travel restrictions are
Projections for 2021 slower pace than domestic travel. gradually eased. While international
The impact of the COVID-19 crisis Following its early start to recovery, passenger traffic volume will still lag
is forecast to remove an additional 4.7 Asia-Pacific will outperform all other behind domestic traffic in 2021, it is
billion passengers by year end 2021 regions in each quarter of 2021 and is forecast to end the year above 1.6 billion
compared to the projected baseline forecast to end the year 2021 with an passenger or 43.4% of 2019 level (see
(pre-COVID-19 forecast for 2021), estimated traffic loss of 40.3% compared to Chart 2).
representing a decline of 47.5% of global the projected baseline (a decline of 35.1% Domestic passenger traffic began
passenger traffic (see Table 1). Compared compared to 2019 level). recovering faster than international traffic.
to 2019 levels, the decline is forecast to Driven by the combination of a Globally, domestic traffic will continue
be -43.6% by year end. The first quarter fast-recovering U.S. domestic market and to increase in 2021 to reach close to 3.5
of 2021 is expected to show little signs of strong vaccination rate, North America billion passengers by the end of 2021
improvement compared to Q4 2020. As forecast for 2021 will significantly improve corresponding to 65.6% of the 2019 level
the vaccination rollout and vaccine uptake and the region is expected to end the year (see Chart 2).
increases, more passengers are expected 2021 at -43.5% compared to the projected

The Virtual Summit of the Americas Issue April 2021 6