Page 12 - PR Communication Age APRIL 2016

The bogey of over population was replaced by depopula-
tion and under population. This gave rise to the idea of the
optimum theory of population. This theory tells us that at
any given time or under any particular conditions, there
may be called a point of maximum returns attainable when
the population is so exactly fitted to the circumstances that
returns would be less if it were either less or more. This
population is called the optimum population. The optimum
varies from time to time as conditions determining popula-
tion change.
Theory of Demographic Transition which is based upon the
actual experience of the developing countries has been
widely discussed recently. The theory explains the growth
of population through three different stages of economic
development.
The first stage relates to the most backward stage of a
country. It is primarily applicable to an agrarian economy
with no sign of industrial development. Birth rate and death
rate are high in this stage. The birth rate is high as a con-
sequence of wide spread illiteracy, early marriage, absence
of knowledge of family planning methods and above all the
conventional belief of big size family. Every addition to the
family is treated as an asset because children start work-
ing at an early age. They are treated as source of security
to the old parents.
Social and economic factors are combined together to raise
the birth rate. The death rate is also high during this stage
on account of poverty,poor diet, primitive sanitation and
absence of medical facilities. Epidemics take a heavy toll
on human life. Many people die for starvation,and shelter.
High birth and death rates keep the growth of population
either stagnant or very slow.
The second stage relates to resources of a developing coun-
try and industrial development. The birth rate continues to
be high because social customs do not change overnight.
Mass illiteracy still exists and the people are not efficient
enough to practice family planning measures. On the other
hand the death rate is falling considerably on account of
improved medical and health facilities,fall in the infant mor- eradication of epidemics. A new equilibrium is established be-
tality rate and assured food supply,a better standard of liv-
ing and so on.
A genuine leader is not a searcher for consensus but a molder of consensus.
12 PR COMMUNICAT ION AGE April 2016
A high birth rate matched with a sharp decline in the death
rate causes rapid increases in population. This stage is bet-
ter known as the stage of 'population explosion.' The con-
sequences of this stage are very dangerous. The population
outpaces production. Whatever little development takes
places in the country is consumed by the excessive popula-
tion.
Sooner the country gets out of this stage, more favorable
the conditions for economic growth. Countries like Indone-
sia, South Korea, and Thailand did not stay for long in this
stage, which is evident from signs of their quickly moving
from the second to the third stage. On the other hand, de-
mographic transition in countries like India has been slow.
The third stage relates to a developed country. Economic
development advances further. The character of the coun-
try changes from the agrarian to the industrial status. The
birth rate falls sharply on account of mass literacy, extensive
use of family planning devices, and high standard of living.
Instead of being homemaker, women prefer jobs outside. The
large size of a family obstructs free mobility,hence a general
preference for a small family prevails.
A recent empirical study on the subject confirms that couples
in developed countries want on an average two children.
Whereas in the under developed & developing countries the
average varies between three and five children. The death
rate also falls considerably due to health measures and the
tween the low birth rate and the low death rate. As a result
the population of a country grows at a slow rate.