Page 211 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

Introduction

Both the strategic situation around the Korean Peninsula and
the trajectory of inter-Korean relations on the Peninsula are
in flux, and the overall trend lines are adverse to longstanding
U.S. efforts to achieve its longstanding goal of “complete,
verifiable, irreversible denuclearization.” If anything, the
U.S.-North Korea nuclear standoff has grown even more
intractable, as the aims of both countries have become even
more diametrically opposed to each other. Both sides continue
a battle to change the strategic environment as a means by
which to produce an outcome favorable to their own interests,
primarily through forms of strategic competition rather than
through dialogue.

This paper reviews potential shifts in the strategic context
surrounding the U.S.-North Korea stalemate as a means of
exploring whether or not those changes may generate new
advantage sufficient to influence the calculations of the other
side and, in particular, how these developments may influence
the relationship between China and North Korea, which has
long generated speculation as a factor that has impeded the
realization of Peninsula denuclearization.

The primary geostrategic factors under examination will
include the aims and impact on China and North Korea
of deepening institutional trilateral cooperation among
the United States, Japan, and South Korea; the rise of the
Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry as the defining feature of regional
security dynamics in Northeast Asia; and the impact of the

Chapter Thirteen : South Korea-Japan-US Cooperation: How to Deter North Korea and Convince China 211