Page 221 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

Conclusion

North Korea has capitalized on the emergence of major
power rivalry as a defining characteristic of the global security
structure by both benefiting from Sino-U.S. confrontation
and seemingly winning a second protector and patron through
enhanced strategic cooperation between Pyongyang and
Moscow. While it does not appear that North Korea has
directly responded to the institutionalization of U.S.-Japan-
South Korea cooperation, which has been driven more by
converging trilateral focus on China, it is possible that China-
North Korea relations may indeed be consolidated in coming
months in partial response to both U.S.-Japan-South Korea
developments as well as the improvement in North Korea’s
relations with Russia. Certainly, the emergence of opposing
alignments in Northeast Asia might hypothetically serve as
an impediment to positive developments in inter-Korean
relations, but it seems more likely in light of the recent tit-for-
tat escalation of inter-Korean tensions and hostilities that the
likelihood of potential conflict between the two Koreas has
risen. If such a crisis were to develop, the emergence of dual
opposing alignments between China, North Korea, and Russia
on the one hand and the United States, Japan, and South
Korea on the other primarily removes tools for restraining or
managing the consequences of such a conflict, even if it is not
a direct catalyst for the rise in inter-Korean tensions. While
the United States may be tempted to hold China responsible
for North Korean provocations in the current environment,
Beijing’s main concern may be the feeling that is it losing
leverage to influence Pyongyang.

Chapter Thirteen : South Korea-Japan-US Cooperation: How to Deter North Korea and Convince China 221