Page 43 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

Risk Scenarios

From South Korea’s perspective (which could also apply to
Japan), there is concern over whether North Korea and China
will pose a military threat through integration. Intentionally
excluding North Korea’s solo attacks due to their low
feasibility, potential risk scenarios to South Korea can be
conceptually classified as follows: 29

• Attack by North Korea on Purpose: Given its nuclear arsenal,
North Korea may launch opportunistic strikes, naturally
taking into account the “automatic intervention” clause
in the alliance treaty with China. Whether the attack is
planned jointly or results in an unintentional escalation,
both North Korea and China will need to work together on
the Korean Peninsula. Alternatively, there is the possibility
of a sudden change in North Korea, in which case China,
which shares a border with North Korea, may become
concerned about security because of mass defections, civil
unrest, or proximity to dangerous nuclear installations,
which could spark a full-scale conflict with South Korea.
In this case, North Korea and China may work together to
erode the military power of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. 30

29 Kyung-joo Jeon and Hanbyeol Sohn, “China’s Nuclear Threats and the Korean Peninsula amid the U.S.-China
Strategic Competition,” The Korean Association of International Studies (KAIS) Annual Seminar (2022).
30 Sangkyu Lee, “Prospects for DPRK’s Nuclear Use Scenarios and Deterrence Measures of the US and ROK
Alliance,” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, Vol.5, No.S1 (2022); Gian Gentile et al., “Four
Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of
Problems,” RAND report (2019).

42 Section I : North Korea-China Relations: How and Why Does Beijing Protect and Empower Pyongyang?