Page 44 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

• Escalation of U.S.-China Military Conflict: It’s irrational
for China to preemptively attack the U.S. mainland. The
starting point would likely be attacks on the territories or
assets of U.S. allies in the region. South Korea is especially
perceived as a weak point, not politically but geographically.
China might attack South Korea to demonstrate resolve
to the United States. Though limited, decisive damage
could take South Korea hostage, China could attack U.S.
military capabilities deployed in South Korea to deny U.S.
preemptive strikes or second strikes, damaging the alliance’s
capabilities. A large-scale attack on South Korea could
be aimed at breaking the will to defend the alliance and
separating the U.S.-South Korea alliance. In that case, the
strongest level of physical attack would be necessary.

Intention to
Objective Scale
Escalate
Block factors leading to ×
sudden changes in North Korea •
North
Korea’s Weaken the alliance’s military power
Intentional through coordinated attacks by NK and China • • ○
Attack
Prevent and quickly end escalation ×
on the Korean Peninsula • • •

Show resolve to the U.S. • ×

U.S.-China
Conflict Deny U.S. military response • • ○
Escalation

Crush South Korea’s will to defend the alliance • • • ○

Chapter Two : North Korea’s Nuclear Threat and China’s Backing for North Korea 43