Page 49 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

situations. The process of creating scenarios takes into
account variables such as political-military relations
between nations, military/nuclear strategies, nuclear and
conventional military capabilities, troop/weapon system
effectiveness, environmental factors, and crisis development
processes. Even after the creation of a scenario, strategic
risk assessment through situation monitoring is required.
“Pol-Mil games” and Tabletop Exercises (TTX) led by U.S.,
South Korea, and Japan experts are required to develop,
verify, and improve different scenarios.

• Direct Engagement with China: despite North Korea’s
increasing nuclear capabilities, threat assessments have
mainly concentrated on direct threats to the U.S., Japan,
or South Korea. Nuclear crises on the Korean Peninsula
now involve regional actors in addition to North and South
Korea; the assessment that the chess match has become
a multilateral game of poker, or worse, Russian roulette,
because of the rise in nuclear actors underscores the serious
risks that China could pose. In addition to the various risk
scenarios that have been discussed above, each nation must
secure the means and strategies for direct engagement with
China.

• Securing Adaptability: Since it is impossible to predict the
future precisely, we must respond to changes adaptively.
While it is ideal to respond to as many scenarios as possible
at once, there is no silver bullet or panacea. Instead, we
must constantly identify gaps in our current readiness and
make up for vulnerabilities. The alliances of the Pacific
and Atlantic regions, with the United States at the center,

48 Section I : North Korea-China Relations: How and Why Does Beijing Protect and Empower Pyongyang?