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212 COMPUTER-BASED APPROACHES TO RISK

Conditional branching goes one step further, adding a condition that will
determine which branch should be taken. You would use conditional branch-
ing when the choice of the successor task is tied to the status of a defined con-
dition task.

Another feature of Monte Carlo, applicable to all modes, is the ability to define
probabilistic calendars. Here, you can select dates that might not be available for
work, and specify the probability of that unavailability. Monte Carlo also has a
provision for defining three resource usage values (Opti/ML/Pess), extending the
risk analysis into the resource usage and cost area.

While Monte Carlo offers several capabilities for advanced risk analysis, it
raises the learning curve both for understanding the technology and for following
a set of involved routines.

Working with probabilistic and conditional relationships might not be for
everyone or every project. Yet, when there is significant sensitivity to missing
dates and budgets (high risk), it’s nice to know that there are simple, PC-based
software products available to facilitate the analysis of such risks.

Other Products and Resources

The three products used here to describe three software-based methods of
schedule risk analysis are not the only ones available to perform such tasks. Read-
ers seeking information on such products might also consider MS Project (Mi-
crosoft), which can operate on PERT calculations, using macros and/or Excel.
SuperProject (Computer Associates) provides actual probability analysis, based
on three time estimates and standard deviation.

Palisade Corporation’s @ Risk for Project supports probabilistic and condi-
tional branching. Distribution functions can be applied to any numeric field.

Welcom Software Technology developed a risk analysis capability, first pub-
lished as a program called OPERA. Now, the features of OPERA have been in-
corporated into Welcom’s Open Plan Professional CPM software.

Risk Tracking Databases

There is yet another class of software that has been developed to aid in identify-
ing and tracking project risk. These programs provide structured formats to facil-
itate the identification of risk items, and the quantification of these items. The
quantification is based on defining the probability of the risk item and the impact
of the potential risk. The key use of these programs is in making it easier to ad-
dress risk issues, to record mitigation plans, to track the status of risk items, and to
communicate all risk data to all team and management personnel.