Page 59 - Microsoft Word - 20120528 Unesco study

4.3 Macro-Economic effects in the State Tabasco
To get an accurate impression of the macro-economic effects of the PowerCem technology,
the maintenance costs due to flood damages are calculated for a time frame of the design
period. The design period is the minimum required lifetime of a road and will be used as
criteria for the construction calculations. The design period will be determined depending on
the type of road and the location. In this study the design period is fixed for 10 years.
Therefore the total costs of a specific road, construction and maintenance costs have to be
depreciated over 10 years. After these 10 years the cost cycle will start over again.

To show the economic effects of the PowerCem Technology in flood areas, a comparison is
made with traditional systems. In this comparison the maintenance costs for the flood
damages are compared. Required maintenance due to the age of the constructions is not
included.

The comparison is made over a period of 10 years on the basis of information from the period
28-06-2011to 07-05-2012. It is assumed that the gathered data from this period is normative
for 10 years. Since the comparison is based on information from specific years there is for both
approaches an outlined scenario. Both scenarios are based on the following assumptions:
- The gathered data regarding the floods and damages given in chapter 3 are normative
for a period of 10 years.
- Floods may occur spread over the whole State Tabasco.

Scenario: Reactive policy on the traditional way
In a reactive policy on the traditional method, the destroyed roads will be renewed with the
same type of materials used in the original construction. The new construction is calculated for
a lifetime of 10 years. However since the traditional constructions are not flood proof the risk
of damage due to floods are similar to all the traditional constructions in the state of Tabasco.
So this scenario is based on the reasonable assumption that for a period of 10 years a similar
amount of roads, spread over the whole country, will be damaged by floods. This means that
the maintenance costs due to flood damages are equal for a period of 10 years.

Scenario: Reactive policy with RoadCem
In a reactive policy with RoadCem, will the destroyed roads be renewed on basis of the
PowerCem technology? One of the advantages of the PowerCem technology is that the roads
built with RoadCem and cement will not be structural damaged by floods.
So after year one (1) is a part of the road network renewed on base of the PowerCem
technology. This means that in the second year the amount of damaged roads are expected to
lower than in the first year, since part of the roads flooded in the second year have already
been replaced with RoadCem. These roads already constructed on basis of the PowerCem
technology will not be damaged.
However the roads which are damaged in the second year will be replaced on basis of the
PowerCem technology. So after year two even more roads are build flood proof and the
expected damage in the third year will be reduced again. Based on expert judgment damage
reduction factor is assumed at 20%. This means that after every year the amount of damages
will be reduced by 20%.
The proportion of flood proof roads over the reference period is shown in figure 4.5

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