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The UK Defence Industry in the 21  Century
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                                            The Five Forces of Americanisation

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               However, whilst a potentially important structure in de-escalating tension across the world, trade is
               also the common major preoccupation for BRICS member countries. Indeed, at this stage in President
               Trump’s administration, international trade seems to have undermined any Russian calls for collective
               aggression against the West.
                     “An overtly anti-Western policy will not prevail in the BRICS, as the overwhelming majority of
                     states there are not interested in aggravating relations with the West.”
                     (Fyodor Lukyanov Chair, Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (Russia) Council of Foreign
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                     relations, 7  November, 2024)
               Yet whilst a new, more aggressive US trade policy at first seemed likely to provoke a retaliatory BRICS
               response, Wall Street’s reaction may ultimately prove decisive in guiding world leaders towards a
               constructive approach to conflict prevention and resolution, pre-empting any consideration of military
               action. To date, financial markets across the world have reacted adversely to the USA’s proposed new
               tariff regime. At the time of writing, the US legal system has rejected their claim to legitimacy. Here,
               it  seems,  idealism  faces  a  new  definition  of  realism.  In  place  of  deterrence,  one  can  detect  the
               pragmatism of world trade and its effect on interdependent national economies, regardless of their
               political persuasion.
               But America First is reconfiguring US trade policy in other assertive and pragmatic ways. Prioritising
               military  support  and  foreign  aid  in  accordance  with  America  First  reflects  a  form  of  coercive
               dealmaking that has featured prominently in US political exchanges for over ten years.

                     ”We will continue to be the leading European ally within NATO, as one of only two Allies (with the
                     US) that can bring to bear nuclear, offensive cyber, precision strike weapons and fifth-generation
                     strike aircraft across the NATO region”
                     “NATO adapted to the threat of extremist terrorists after 9/11, declaring Article V and developing
                     its expeditionary role, and since 2014 has successfully re-invigorated its defence and deterrence
                     in response to the threat posed by an aggressive Russia.”
                     (UK Ministry of Defence: “Defence in a Competitive Age” March, 2021)
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               In the 21  Century, the global trade in arms has brought about the evolution of a separate, distinctive
               but complementary international structure, based on the pragmatism of hard power: weapon systems
               and  military  equipment  and  services.  This  framework  arises  from  common  weapon  systems  and
               equipment,  procured  from  similar  sources or  suppliers  and  required to  address  similar or  shared
               threats. And, since investment in defence is a whole-government or cabinet-level decision, it is based
               on the practicalities of national and international political, commercial, financial, social and economic
               realities.
               The acquisition of equipment usually spans more than one government’s or head of state’s term.
               Military sales do not take place in a vacuum. They envisage a conflict, usually with a possible aggressor
               and with a specified term in mind. Equipment needs updating, refreshing, replacing or supplementing
               over a period of this term and beyond. The buyer–seller relationship is intimate and enduring. It has
               to be.
                     “In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the In-Kingdom Industrial Participation programme continues to
                     make good progress consistent with our long-term strategy, whilst supporting the Kingdom’s
                     National Transformation Plan and Vision 2030.”
                     (BAE Systems plc 2024 Half Year Report)
               For  the  exporting  country,  it  creates  a  tangible  level  of  authority  underpinning  effective  foreign
               influence and diplomacy as well as practical opportunities, via international defence systems and
               equipment development programmes, to strengthen existing or develop new military and diplomatic
               alliances, as well as to explore interoperability and, significantly, to reduce costs.

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               07/07/2025                                                                                                                                   Richard Hooke 2025
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