Page 149 - COVID-19: The Great Reset

industry. As a direct consequence and for the foreseeable future,
the major civil aircraft assembly plants will operate at reduced

capacity, with cascading effects on the entirety of their value chain
and supplier network. In the longer term, changes in demand by
airline companies that re-evaluate their needs will lead to a
complete reassessment of the production of civilian aircraft. This

makes the defence aerospace sector an exception and a relatively
safe haven. For nation states, the uncertain geopolitical outlook
makes it imperative to maintain orders and procurement, but
cash-constrained governments will demand better payment terms.

Like airports, car rental companies depend almost entirely on
aviation volumes. Hertz, a highly indebted company with a fleet of
700,000 cars overwhelmingly idled during the lockdowns, filed for
bankruptcy in May. Like for so many companies, COVID-19
proved to be the proverbial last straw.

2.2.2. Behavioural changes – permanent vs
transient

Effects on retail, real estate and education

Some behavioural changes observed during the lockdowns
are unlikely to be entirely reversed in the post-pandemic era and
some may even become permanent. How exactly this will play out
remains very uncertain. A few consumption patterns may revert to

long-term trend lines (comparable to air travel after 9/11), albeit at
an altered pace. Others will undoubtedly accelerate, like online
services. Some may be postponed, like buying a car, while new

permanent patterns of consumption may emerge, like purchases
associated with greener mobility.

Much of this is still unknown. During the lockdowns, a lot of
consumers were forced to learn to do things for themselves (bake
their bread, cook from scratch, cut their own hair, etc.) and felt the

need to spend cautiously. How entrenched will these new habits
and forms of “do it yourself” and auto-consumption become in the
post-pandemic era? The same could apply to students who in

some countries pay exorbitant fees for higher education. After a

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