Page 39 - COVID-19: The Great Reset

suddenly be reversed by new waves, and societies’ cohesion can
be challenged by renewed economic and social pain.

1.2.2.1. Economic growth

At different moments between February and May 2020, in a
bid to contain the pandemic, governments worldwide made the
deliberate decision to shut down much of their respective

economies. This unprecedented course of events has brought
with it a fundamental shift in the way the world economy operates,
marked by an abrupt and unsolicited return to a form of relative
autarky, with every nation trying to move towards certain forms of

self-sufficiency, and a reduction in national and global output. The
impact of these decisions seemed all the more dramatic because
they concerned first and foremost service industries, a sector
traditionally more immune than other industries (like construction

or manufacturing) to the cyclical swings of economic growth.
Consequently, the service sector that represents by far the largest
component of economic activity in any developed economy (about
70% of GDP and more than 80% of employment in the US) was

hit the hardest by the pandemic. It also suffered from another
distinctive characteristics: contrary to manufacturing or agriculture,
lost revenues in services are gone forever. They cannot be
deferred because service companies don’t hold inventories or

stock raw materials.

Several months into the pandemic, it looks like even a
semblance of a return to “business as usual” for most service
companies is inconceivable as long as COVID-19 remains a

threat to our health. This in turn suggests that a full return to
“normal” cannot be envisaged before a vaccine is available. When
might that be? According to most experts, it is unlikely to be
before the first quarter of 2021 at the earliest. In mid-June 2020,
already more than 135 trials were under way, proceeding at a

remarkable pace considering that in the past it could take up to 10
years to develop a vaccine (five in the case of Ebola), so the
reason is not science, but production. Manufacturing billions of

doses constitutes the real challenge that will require a massive
expansion and diversion of existing capacity. The next hurdle is

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