Page 98 - COVID-19: The Great Reset

foreign capital. In the coming years, as the pandemic inflicts
hardship globally, it is most likely that the dynamic will only go one

way for the world’s poorest and most fragile countries: from bad to
worse. In short, many states that exhibit characteristics of fragility
risk failing.

State fragility remains one of the most critical global
challenges, particularly prevalent in Africa. Its causes are multiple

and intertwined; they range from economic disparity, social issues,
political corruption and inefficiencies, to external or internal
conflicts and natural disasters. Today, it is estimated that around

1.8-2 billion people lived in fragile states, a number that will
certainly increase in the post-pandemic era because fragile
countries are particularly vulnerable to an outbreak of COVID-19.
[101] The very essence of their fragility – weak state capacity and

the associated inability to ensure the fundamental functions of
basic public services and security – makes them less able to cope
with the virus. The situation is even worse in failing and failed
states that are almost always victims of extreme poverty and

fractious violence and, as such, can barely or no longer perform
basic public functions like education, security or governance.
Within their power vacuum, helpless people fall victim to
competing factions and crime, often compelling the UN or a

neighbouring state (not always well intentioned) to intervene to
prevent a humanitarian disaster. For many such states, the
pandemic will be the exogenous shock that forces them to fail and
fall even further.

For all these reasons, it is almost a tautology to state that the
damage inflicted by the pandemic to fragile and failing states will
be much deeper and longer-lasting than in the richer and most
developed economies. It will devastate some of the world’s most
vulnerable communities. In many cases, economic disaster will

trigger some form of political instability and outbreaks of violence
because the world’s poorest countries will suffer from two
predicaments: first, the breakdown in trade and supply chains

caused by the pandemic will provoke immediate devastation like
no remittances or increased hunger; and, second, further down
the line, they will endure a prolonged and severe loss of

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