Page 99 - COVID-19: The Great Reset

employment and income. This is the reason why the global
outbreak has such potential to wreak havoc in the world’s poorest

countries. It is there that economic decline will have an even more
immediate effect on societies. Across large swathes of sub-
Saharan Africa, in particular, but also in parts of Asia and Latin
America, millions depend on a meagre daily income to feed their

families. Any lockdown or health crisis caused by the coronavirus
could rapidly create widespread desperation and disorder,
potentially triggering massive unrest with global knock-on effects.
The implications will be particularly damaging for all those

countries caught in the midst of a conflict. For them, the pandemic
will inevitably disrupt humanitarian assistance and aid flows. It will
also limit peace operations and postpone diplomatic efforts to
bring the conflicts to an end.

Geopolitical shocks have a propensity to take observers by

surprise, with ripple and knock-on effects that create second-,
third- and more-order consequences, but currently where are the
risks most apparent?

All commodity-countries are at risk (Norway and a few others

do not qualify). At the time of writing, they are being hit particularly
hard by the collapse in energy and commodity prices that are
exacerbating the problems posed by the pandemic and all the
other issues with which they conflate (unemployment, inflation,

inadequate health systems and, of course, poverty). For rich and
relatively developed energy-dependent economies like the
Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, the collapse of oil prices
“only” represents a considerable economic blow, putting strained

budgets and foreign exchange reserves under strain, and posing
acute medium- and long-term risks. But for lower-income
countries like South Sudan where oil accounts for the quasi
totality of exports (99%), the blow could simply be devastating.

This is true for many other fragile commodity countries. Outright
collapse is not an outlandish scenario for petrostates like Ecuador
or Venezuela, where the virus could overwhelm the countries’ few
functioning hospitals very quickly. Meanwhile in Iran, US sanctions

are compounding the problems associated with the high rate of
COVID-19 infection.

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