Page 96 - COVID-19: The Great Reset

fundamentally, proponents of US “irreducibility” will argue with
Ruchir Sharma that: “US economic supremacy has repeatedly

proved declinists wrong”. [98] They will also agree with Winston
Churchill, who once observed that the US has an innate capability
to learn from its mistakes when he remarked that the US always
did the right thing when all the alternatives have been exhausted.

Leaving aside the highly charged political argument

(democracy versus autocracy), those who believe that the US will
remain a “winner” for many more years also stress that China
faces its own headwinds on its path to global superpower status.

Those most frequently mentioned are the following: 1) it suffers
from a demographic disadvantage, with a fast-ageing population
and a working-age population that peaked in 2015; 2) its influence
in Asia is constrained by existing territorial disputes with Brunei,

India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Viet Nam;
and 3) it is highly energy-dependent.

No winner

What do those who claim that “the pandemic bodes ill for both
American and Chinese power – and for the global order” think? [99]

They argue that, like almost all other countries around the world,
both China and the US are certain to suffer massive economic
damage that will limit their capacity to extend their reach and
influence. China, whose trade sector represents more than a third

of total GDP, will find it difficult to launch a sustained economic
recovery when its large trading partners (like the US) are
drastically retrenching. As for the US, its over-indebtedness will
sooner or later constrain post-recovery spending, with the ever-

present risk that the current economic crisis metastasizes into a
systemic financial crisis.

Referring in the case of both countries to the economic hit and
domestic political difficulties, the doubters assert that both

countries are likely to emerge from this crisis significantly
diminished. “Neither a new Pax Sinica nor a renewed Pax
Americana will rise from the ruins. Rather, both powers will be
weakened, at home and abroad”.

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