Page 10 - AsianOil Week 26 2021

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China trims 2030 gas goal

The country’s energy planners have reduced gas’ projected
share of the 2030 primary energy mix from 15% to 12%

COMMENTARY THE Chinese government’s pledge to reach car- account for just 12% of the energy mix by 2030
bon neutrality by 2060 has forced the country’s but that demand itself would peak by 2035 before
energy planners to rethink the role natural gas slowly declining.
WHAT: will play in the national energy mix over the next A senior director of CNPC’s planning depart-
Gas demand is now four decades. ment, Zhu Xingshan, told delegates on July 24
projected to peak by While the country will still depend on gas to that while gas would play a central role in help-
2035. help wean itself off coal and crude oil, China is ing to reduce the country’s coal consumption, it
planning for a future where non-fossil fuels will would only account for 11% of national energy
WHY: account for the vast majority of the country’s demand by 2060.
The government is energy needs. China is aiming to reduce coal use from
focused on ensuring its As such, gas now is expected to account for 56.8% of energy consumption in 2020 to below
carbon emissions peak 12% of national energy consumption by 2030, 56% this year, 44% by 2030 and 8% by 2060, the
by 2030. down from the long-held ambition for the official Xinhua newswire quoted Zhu as saying.
cleaner burning fuel to account for 15%. Petroleum, meanwhile, is expected to see its
WHAT NEXT: While still perceived as the bridging fuel to a share of the energy mix fall to 18% by 2030 and
Beijing wants the country greener economy, it is now clear that the coun- 6% in 2060.
to be carbon neutral by try’s mad dash for gas – which led to chronic Underwriting this fundamental shift will the
2060. shortages just a few winters ago – is beginning rise of non-fossil fuels, which Zhu said would
to cool off. account for 26% of the national energy mix by
As the East Asian giant moves to overtake 2030 and 75% in 2060.
Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied This means that demand for gas is antici-
natural gas (LNG), predicted by the Interna- pated to peak by 2035, according to predictions
tional Energy Agency (IEA) to happen this year, from state-owned oil and gas pipeline company
long-term projections of reduced demand from PipeChina.
the market’s biggest buyer will not be welcome PipeChina executive Tang Shanhua told the
news for the world’s exporters. industry event that demand was likely to climb
from 326.2bn cubic metres in 2020 to 526 bcm
Revised figures by 2030, 650 bcm by 2035 and then retreat to 550
An industry conference heard from oil and gas bcm by 2050. Tang said gas demand for power
executives last week that not only would gas generation would account for most of that

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