Page 17 - MEOG Annual Review 2021

MEOG JULY MEOG

However, Moscow and others have been deal lets both the Saudis and the Emiratis to
pushing to step up output and Riyadh could not claim victory. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective it
be seen to take a secondary position to Russia. was able to extend the deal while only allowing
That said, the closer Saudi production comes to baseline level alterations for key allies. Even then,
its OPEC+ quota, the less flexibility it can wield the move will have little bearing on Iraq, which
to keep others in line. has routinely overproduced.”
Meanwhile, state-owned Saudi Aramco has a Algeria and Nigeria have spoken of their
maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) of 12mn displeasure about the move though, saying that
bpd, which it has been instructed to increase to allowing the bigger producers to raise their base-
13mn bpd by the Ministry of Energy. lines unfairly penalises those with output lev-
The potential upside for Saudi Arabia is that els. However, keeping the top exporters happy
once Aramco completes the projects to raise appears to have won the day.
MSC, it can produce at a higher level without Meanwhile, Simm added: “With Saudi
being seen to flout the quotas. unlikely to utilise any of its additional 500,000-
However, the company is still working on a bpd wiggle room for the time being, allowing
plan to achieve this increase as maintaining pro- other members to add around 1.1mn bpd to
duction at mature assets and tapping the Jafurah the market from May next year seems like a
basin for gas take priority. deal worth making to maintain co-operation,
Speaking to NewsBase, Ian Simm, Principal providing they are able to keep a lid on the
Advisor at consultancy IGM Energy said: “This discontent.”™
Baseline (mbpd)

Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
OPEC
Algeria 1.057 1.057
Angola 1.528 1.528
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.325

Equatorial Guinea 0.127
Gabon 0.187
Iran Exempt Exempt
Iraq 4.653 4.803

Kuwait 2.809 2.959
Libya Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.829 1.829
Saudi Arabia 11.000 11.500
UAE 3.168 3.500

Venezuela Exempt Exempt

Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.718 0.718

Bahrain 0.205 0.205
Brunei 0.102 0.102
Kazakhstan 1.709 1.709
Malaysia 0.595 0.595
Mexico Exempt Exempt
Oman 0.883 0.883

Russia 11.000 11.500
Sudan 0.075 0.075
South Sudan 0.130 0.130

Annual Review •2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P17