Page 5 - Turkey Outlook 2022

2.0 Political outlook

Snap election

So many varying snap election predictions have been made that a thick fog
has descended over the probabilities. Some expect a poll in the spring. Others
say June. Still others say autumn. Few believe the country won’t see a contest
until June 2023, as scheduled.

Erdogan of late has several times reiterated that the election will be held
according to the schedule; thus he has strengthened expectations of a snap
poll. Voicing the opposite of what you actually intend is among the main
principles for spreading propaganda (for instance, Erdogan and Washington
are always very publicly at odds).

In our Outlook 2021 Turkey report, we noted: “Erdogan enters 2021 with his
support among voters at below 30%.”

What can reliably be said by now? Only that Erdogan’s support has not fallen
below 20%. There is some so-called intensive analysis doing the rounds based
on a few opinion polls. However, punditry is not at all challenging when you
neglect to take into account the weaknesses of the survey methodologies. It is
not our job to lecture people on such methodologies but the fact that generally
the media punditry is almost entirely misleading should not be forgotten.

Again, refer back to Outlook 2021 Turkey: “The trick [is] to look for real
developments amid all the noise generated in and by the media.”

Erdogan’s health

Erdogan is so frail and sick that there is a question mark over whether he will
be able to carry on in office, say some observers. The speculation intensifies
the discussion of how the Erdogan regime will end. The supreme leader’s
physical and mental performances certainly seem volatile. Lately, he has been
reading from a teleprompter. Recent months have also been marked by
periods of a few days during which he was “lost from view”. And he has had
physical difficulties in front of the cameras.

Turkey is said to remain a one-man show, but there has been an unmistakable
deterioration in Erdogan’s countenance and demeanour in recent months and
it begs some questions:

· Who is instrumental in governing Turkey at the moment?

· Who is using the dictatorial powers Erdogan has amassed?

· Who is writing what Erdogan is reading on the prompters?

· How long can Erdogan continue?

5 Turkey Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com