Page 6 - Turkey Outlook 2022

Foreign policy

Our Outlook 2021 Turkey report read: “As things stand, it seems more likely
that [the Biden] administration will aim to make use of Erdogan… If Erdogan
can find a role for himself in the Democrats’ new game plan, he can survive
throughout 2021 despite all of his weaknesses.”

Erdogan has managed to dig his claws into a “transactional” partnership with
Joe Biden. In partnership with Qatar, he took over the Kabul Airport mission in
Afghanistan. The question is how he can fulfill such a mission in such a hellish
situation.

Turkey could be drawn into a conflict scenario at the airport at any moment as
its personnel (only civilians) are open targets. It is said that Turkish military
units are on standby in Pakistan to come to the rescue in the case of an
emergency.

Despite its distaste, the Biden administration has somewhat backed the
Erdogan regime up to now, but Erdogan has been disappointed by the lack of
photoshoots with Donald Trump’s successor. Such are Erdogan’s growing
difficulties, though, that Joe Biden’s tentative support and bog standard
photoshoots may not be enough.

One positive development in 2021 was that we stopped hearing “the perennial
story suggesting that Erdogan will be smashed between Washington and
Moscow” and wrongheaded analysis on whether “Turkey is becoming a proxy
of Russia/China”.

However, the traditional “something must be done” stories on Erdogan’s abuse
of basic human rights in Turkey won’t go away. As long as enough Western
politicians keep mouthing “something must be done”, but stop short of actually
doing anything meaningful, the realities of relations between the West and
Turkey need not be uprooted.

Those who take the EU seriously in this sphere are incurable. Leave them to
themselves.

Halkbank case

More from Outlook 2021 Turkey: “The sanctions noise and the Halkbank court
case… will continue to hang over Erdogan’s head...”

The next hearing in the Halkbank case, which could mean the airing of some
uncomfortable evidence for Erdogan, is not yet set. On October 22, the 2nd
US Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the state lender’s bid to dismiss an
indictment accusing the bank of assisting Iran in the evasion of American
sanctions. Halkbank appealed the ruling. On December 17, the court rejected
this appeal too.

The Erdogan regime takes any chance it can to slow the process of bringing
Halkbank to trial while the US uses the case as a Sword of Damocles.

The US is also chasing ‘SBK’, a Turkish “businessman” currently under arrest
in Austria. The case could mean more leverage held by the Biden
administration over Ankara.

6 Turkey Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com