Page 9 - Turkey Outlook 2022

White goods sales (unit, y/y) 11.2 -1.2 33.1 27.2 16.7 39.7 16.2 -31.0 -8.2 12.1 -11.1 -13.3 7.1
Air passengers (person, y/y) -19.1 -94.6 -62.1 -57.9 -60.9 -47.4 678.8 175.3 90.0 66.7 102.3 77.1 83.1

Foreign Tourist (person, y/y) -22.1 -97.9 -73.0 -62.0 -71.7 -53.9 1,304.0 367.5 119.4 59.5 139.5 99.3 111.5

WARNING: If you use macroeconomic statistics in real life, avoid
planning or pricing based on Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data.

3.1 GDP growth

Macro data is like religion. The less you know, the more you believe. Despite
all weaknesses, when identical data methodology is incorruptly applied across
each term, an opinion can be formed as to direction. In Turkey, there is no
such application.

Outlook 2021 Turkey: “In our OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey report, we noted that
Turkey’s official data series had come to be widely regarded as a bad joke.

“This year, we can add that the joke has gotten worse…”

The feeling of the Inception movie (“It’s only when we wake up that we realize
that our dream was actually strange”) is not unfamiliar to observers of Turkey,
which never solves its problems and steadily becomes more and more
gangrenous.

Deliberately or not, all inferences based on Turkey’s official data can only be
manipulative. It is not even funny to hear “Erdogan chooses growth.” There is
no growth in Turkey.

Outlook 2021 Turkey: “Turkey’s worst potential trouble will eventuate if the
situation with the pandemic means the country cannot properly launch its
tourism season in April. Losing huge amounts of tourism revenues for a
second year would mean a tectonic collapse in the economy.”

The overall collapse was avoided “by the inside of the goal post” with the
welcoming of around 25mn foreign tourists. The cost was thousands of people
dying of COVID-19.

On December 8, Moody’s Investors Service hiked its 2021 GDP growth
forecast for Turkey to 11%.

9 Turkey Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com