Page 8 - Turkey Outlook 2022

3.0 Macro Economy

Main Macro Indicators Q1-19 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP Growth (y/y, %) -2.5 -1.6 1.0 6.0 0.9 4.4 -10.4 6.3 6.2 1.8 7.4 22.0 7.4 -
Electricity Consumption (y/y, Dec26) -1.5 0.4 -1.5 0.5 -0.6 3.3 -11.5 3.6 4.5 0.2 5.7 25.8 11.6 8.9
Employed (active, mn) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 25.1 20.8 25.2 25.1 24.1 25.8 26.6 27.1 -
Population (mn) - - - - 83.2 - - - - 83.6 - - - -
GDP (per capita, $) - - - - 9,127 - - - - 8,599 - - - -
GDP (current, TRYbn) 926 1,030 1,157 1,205 4,318 1,071 1,038 1,414 1,524 5,047 1,393 1,586 1,915 -
GDP (current prices, $bn) 172 176 204 208 760 176 153 197 192 717 189 189 225 -
CPI (%, eop, Nov) 19.7 15.7 9.3 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.6 11.8 14.6 14.6 16.2 17.5 21.3 -
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Dec 17) 3.0 -0.5 4.0 13.9 13.9 19.1 39.4 46.4 43.3 43.3 34.4 17.5 12.8 19.8
Policy Rate (%, active, eop) 25.5 23.9 16.3 11.4 11.4 9.3 7.6 11.1 17.0 17.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 14.0

CA Balance ($bn, Oct) -1.88 -1.29 5.92 -1.07 1.67 -8.1 -11.9 -8.3 -6.7 -35.0 -7.5 -6.1 1.9 3.2
CA Balance/GDP (%) -1.1 -0.7 2.9 -0.5 0.2 -4.6 -7.8 -4.2 -3.5 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 0.8 -
Budget (TRYbn, Oct) -36 -42 -7 -38 -124 -30 -80 -31 -32 -173 23 -55 -29 14.6
Budget Balance/GDP (%) -3.9 -4.1 -0.6 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -7.7 -2.2 -2.1 -3.4 1.6 -3.5 -1.5 -
USD/TRY (eop, Dec 29) 5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44 8.24 8.70 8.89 12.4
Turkey: Production indicators
y/y, % Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-21 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Q3 Oct Nov Dec Q4 2021

Official GDP Growth 4.4 -10.4 6.3 6.2 1.8 7.4 22.0 - - - 7.4
Electricity Consumption (Dec 26) 3.3 -11.5 3.6 4.5 0.2 5.7 25.8 11.7 17.9 4.9 11.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 8.9 12.4
Employed (active, mn) 25.1 20.8 25.2 25.1 24.1 25.8 26.6 - - - 27.1
Industry (≈20% of GDP) 7.5 -15.9 8.1 12.1 3.1 11.7 40.6 - - - 10.0

IndustrialProductionIndex(unadjusted) 5.7 -16.6 8.5 10.2 2.2 11.3 40.4 -1.4 20.1 8.9 9.0 5.3
Vehicle Production -4.8 -51.6 5.4 11.3 -10.0 3.5 68.1 -43.2 40.2 -23.5 -15.2 -27.4 -18.8

Crude Steel Production 9.6 -16.8 16.3 16.1 6.0 9.5 35.3 2.5 7.1 2.4 5.8 8.0 6.1
White Goods Production 0.0 -26.5 15.4 24.8 3.5 36.5 63.1 -24.1 11.6 1.0 -4.4 -10.5 5.5
Turkey: Consumption indicators
%, y/y Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-21 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Q3 Oct Nov Dec Q4 2021

Official GDP Growth (real, y/y) 4.4 -10.4 6.3 6.2 1.8 7.4 22.0 - - - 7.4
ElectricityConsumption(Dec26,y/y) 3.3 -11.5 3.6 4.5 0.2 5.7 25.8 11.7 17.9 4.9 11.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 8.9 12.4
PrivateConsumption(≈60%ofGDP) 4.9 -9.2 8.4 7.8 3.2 6.9 23.3 - - - 9.1

Retail Sales Index(unadjusted,y/y) 7.5 -11.2 9.5 8.5 3.8 9.0 27.7 9.3 18.3 17.2 14.9 13.8
Card payments (nominal lira, y/y) 15.9 -6.4 18.5 23.2 13.0 28.8 65.7 50.8 56.6 89.1 64.7 57.8 66.3
ENAG Inflation 44.7 49.9 58.7

Gasoline sales (m3, y/y) 4.2 -28.8 10.3 -3.2 -2.5 43.2 30.9 22.7 25.8 26.5 46.4 42.8
Diesel fuel sales (m3, y/y) 4.0 -16.3 5.5 0.3 4.2 26.4 2.2 4.5 4.3 3.6 7.4 7.7
Autogas (LPG) sales (tonne, y/y) 2.4 -30.1 -3.4 -8.6 -8.5 23.5 15.7 9.5 13.5 12.9 2.3 0.1

Vehicle Sales (unit, y/y) 40.6 21.6 178.0 41.2 61.3 59.7 51.2 -45.3 -5.0 36.9 -31.8 -40.1 -24.9
Home Sales (unit, y/y) 33.0 13.8 49.2 -30.0 11.2 -22.9 2.1 -53.0 -17.0 7.6 -26.1 14.9 59.0

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