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FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM
Carbon emissions to peak in
“historic turning point” IEA says
Global carbon emissions are set to peak in 2025 as the world reaches a
"historic turning point."
GLOBAL GLOBAL carbon emissions will peak in 2025 as plateau, the IEA predicts. Russia's share in the
the world reaches a “historic turning point” and global oil and gas market will fall by 50% by
governments pour investment into renewables 2030, while Capital Economics forecasts Russia
to counteract the energy crisis that has gripped oil production will drop 10%, or by 1mn barrels
the world this year. per day (bpd), in 2023 alone.
Those are the conclusions in a report from the “Today’s energy crisis is delivering a shock
International Energy Agency (IEA) released on of unprecedented breadth and complexity. The
October 27 that takes in the impact of the war in biggest tremors have been felt in the markets for
Ukraine and the Kremlin’s limiting of gas sup- natural gas, coal and electricity – with significant
plies to Europe. turmoil in oil markets as well, necessitating two
"The global energy crisis could be a historic oil stock releases of unparalleled scale by IEA
turning point in the transition to a cleaner and member countries to avoid even more severe
safer future," the IEA concluded. disruptions. With unrelenting geopolitical and
Energy prices have jumped to as much as economic concerns, energy markets remain
twenty-times historical levels after Russia cut extremely vulnerable, and the crisis is a reminder
off gas supplies this year and mysterious explo- of the fragility and unsustainability of the current
sions destroyed the Nord Stream gas pipelines in global energy system,” the World Energy Out-
September. Russia supplied 155bn cubic metres look 2022 (WEO) warns.
of gas to Europe, about a third of its needs, but The war in Ukraine has led to a complete
now the race is on to replace the Russian gas with transformation of Europe’s energy market. With
alternative sources of energy and that has cata- a total ban on the import of Russian oil products
lysed EU plans to become net zero by 2055 in its due to come into effect on December 5 and gas
Fit For 55 programme. supplies already massively reduced, Russia will
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will be a have to reorientate its energy transport infra-
turning point for the global energy market, structure from west to east. Russia’s gas pipelines
the IEA says. Renewable energy will grow and and oil tankers overwhelmingly serve European
the global demand for hydrocarbons will now markets. While tankers can be redirected to
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