Page 9 - FSUOGM Week 43 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

remains about half of what is needed. Annual Methane emissions rose by the most ever
clean energy investment would have to reach $4 to set a new record last year, according to the
trillion by 2030 to hit the net-zero carbon emis- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Observa-
sions target by 2050. tory, and the gas is responsible for a fifth of the
“And major international efforts are still global warming effects.
urgently required to narrow the worrying divide
in clean energy investment levels between Russia’s energy export outlook is poor
advanced economies and emerging and devel- The outlook for Russian energy exports is poor,
oping economies,” the IEA highlighted saying according to the IEA. Russia has failed to com-
more investors need to be attracted to the energy mit to the green revolution, but the effects on the
sector. development of Russia’s energy system of the
“This means redoubling efforts to ensure that Ukrainian war will be dramatic. Russia will see
a broad coalition of countries has a stake in the total losses to its budget of $1 trillion by 2030,
new energy economy. The journey to a more the IEA says.
secure and sustainable energy system may not be China is the only market that is big enough to
a smooth one. But today’s crisis makes it crystal absorb most the gas that Russia used to export to
clear why we need to press ahead,” Birol added. Europe, but even that market is not big enough
The IEA estimate that temperatures will to absorb it all. According to the IEA, in the
rise by 2.5C by 2050 is still well above the 1.5C 2020s, gas consumption in China will grow by
increase above pre-industry levels agreed in an average of 2% per year (in the 2010s it grew
Paris. Anything above this will have severe by 12% per year).
effects on the climate, including more extreme Compared to the report from 2021, the IEA
weather events that have plagued the world in has reduced the forecast for oil production in
the last year. Russia by 2mn bpd by 2025 and natural gas pro-
A separate UN study, published the same day, duction by 200 bcm per year. Russia’s piped gas
also found that government pledges so far to cut exports have already fallen by 80% this year after
emissions will lead to 2.5C of global warming. the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipelines in
Reducing emissions will still be difficult, as September.
some countries are not participating in the cli- “Energy markets and policies have changed
mate crisis efforts, while those that are remain as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not
susceptible to pressure from lobby groups. just for the time being, but for decades to come,”
As bne IntelliNews reported, an orbital said Birol. “Even with today’s policy settings, the
Nasa instrument has detected large, worldwide energy world is shifting dramatically before our
emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas eyes. Government responses around the world
(GHG). “Super-emitters” were identified in promise to make this a historic and definitive
countries such as Turkmenistan and Iran. Meth- turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable
ane is 27 times more harmful to the climate than and more secure energy system.”
CO2. The IEA says that Russia’s gas exports will
The EU is also ignoring its own methane never return to 2021 levels and will fall by
problem, most of which derives from agricul- exactly 50% by 2030. Russia's share in the global
ture – particularly livestock – and is on track gas market will fall from 30% in 2021 to 15% in
to break a promise to cut methane emissions 2030 in the base case and to 10% in the optimistic
by 30% by 2030 made due to a “policy vac- one. The export revenue the Kremlin earns from
uum” on livestock emissions, The Guardian gas exports will shrink from the pre-war $75bn
reports. EU has avoided using policy levers a year to less than $30bn in the IEA’s optimistic
such as its €387bn common agricultural pol- scenario. Russian oil exports will also drop by
icy to directly tackle the problem, according 25% by 2030 and by 40% by 2050.
to the report by the Changing Markets Foun- Europe will be able to replace most of the lost
dation, under pressure from the powerful Russian oil imports with Middle Eastern sup-
agricultural lobby. pliers, but some will also go to North America,

Week 43 28•October•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P9