Page 8 - FSUOGM Week 43 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

markets in Asia, the building of new gas pipe- of capacity of all announced projects is around
lines to China will take at least until the end of 50%,” the report says.
this decade and sanctions have limited Russia’s The IEA annual report included a baseline
ability to expand its LNG production. scenario that assumes that global demand for
fossil fuels will peak around 2025, after which
Investing into green energy it will begin to fall. This is the first time that an
The crisis has forced the governments of the IEA report has included a forecast where fossil
world’s largest countries – the United States, the fuel use will plateau or decline as its base case
European Union, Japan, South Korea, China and for each of the three main fossil fuels. Coal use
India – to also want to change their sources of will peak in a few years’ time. Gas use will peak
energy and accelerate their efforts to switch to by the end of the 2020s. And oil use will peak in
renewables, which has now become a national the mid-2030s. The share of fossil fuels in total
security issue as well as a climate crisis issue. energy consumption, which has long remained
The total value of all declared green projects at 80%, will also begin to fall to 75% by 2030 and
will grow by 50% by 2030 to $2 trillion a year. to 60% by 2050.
Renewables are set to dominate global capac- The acceleration of the phasing out of coal,
ity additions, accounting for 75-80% of all new gas and oil improves the outlook for emissions
capacity to 2050, led by solar PV and wind, the and global climate change. The coronavirus
report says. (COVID-19) pandemic saw emissions fall dra-
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, matically in the last two years as economies
said the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in went into lockdown, but the post-coronavirus
Ukraine “is in fact going to accelerate the clean economic bounce-back was stronger than many
energy transition”. “The golden age of gas is anticipated and the global emission of GHGs
approaching the end,” Birol said. soared to fresh record levels in 2021, undoing
Part of this investment is being driven by new all the gains made, the International Monetary
ambitious legislation that boosts spending and Fund (IMF) reported in July.
support for green investments. The IEA high- The IEA's base case assumes that CO2 emis-
lighted the US Inflation Reduction Act and the sions will hit a historic high of 37bn tonnes in
EU’s Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU initia- 2025, five years earlier than previously predicted.
tives as particularly important. After that, they should begin to decline and by
Supply chains for some key technologies – 2050 they will have fallen to 32bn tonnes. Under
including batteries, solar PV and electrolysers this scenario, global average temperatures would
– are also expanding at rates that support greater rise by about 2.5°C by 2100, 1° better than esti-
global ambition, according to the IEA. mated a few years ago, the IEA notes.
“If all announced manufacturing expansion
plans for solar PV see the light of day, manufac- Missed targets
turing capacity would exceed the deployment Nevertheless, even this reduction in emissions
levels in the Announced Pledges Scenario in means that the Paris Accord targets will be
2030 by around 75%. In the case of electrolysers missed, and the climate will suffer serious dam-
for hydrogen production, the potential excess age. The $2 trillion a year of announced projects

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 43 28•October•2022