Page 8 - MEOG Week 09 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

Unmoved by Ukraine conflict,

OPEC+ sticks to its guns

OPEC+ THE OPEC+ group surprised nobody in the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA)
industry this week when it announced that it would release 60mn barrels from their strate-
would add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gic petroleum reserves (SPRs), with half of that
combined oil production in April, as crude prices coming from the US.
continued to defy gravity. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “The
Following a meeting in Vienna on March 2, situation in energy markets is very serious and
the group signed off on the now-customary eas- demands our full attention. Global energy secu-
ing of quotas, though data showed that its Jan- rity is under threat, putting the world economy at
uary output was nearly 1mn bpd below target. risk during a fragile stage of the recovery.”
The US has repeatedly asked OPEC kingpin However, the IEA’s efforts to reduce prices
Saudi Arabia to increase production to bring failed to counter the geopolitical and supply
prices lower, but Riyadh, and other members of security risk premium associated with the
the group have been united in reiterating their ongoing conflict in Ukraine as ICE Brent crude
dedication to the 2020 deal that has stabilised futures hit a nine-year high of $113.94
markets and bolstered prices. Concerns about the OPEC+ group’s ability to
Perhaps the clearest expression of the indus- ramp up output were clearly a factor in the rise
try’s perspective was given Bahrain’s Oil Minis- with data from OPEC’s Joint Technical Com-
ter HE Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Ahmed Al mittee showing that production in January had
Khalifa during last week’s International Petro- missed the 23-nation group’s 40.493mn bpd by
leum Technology Conference (IPTC) in Riyadh. 972,000 bpd. For the long-term sustainability
He thanked Saudi Energy Minister and “cap- of the deal, members will be urged to redouble
tain of the ship” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al efforts to increase output, particularly in view
Saud for his role in steering the oil industry away of last year’s upward adjustment of the baseline
from the “edge of the abyss”. for the OPEC+ quotas, which will unwind the
With the OPEC+ position clear, this week restrictions by almost 1.6mn bpd when it comes
started with the news that 31 members of the into effect in May.™
Targets (mbpd) Baseline (mbpd)
March 2022 April 2022 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
OPEC
Algeria 0.992 1.002 1.057 1.057
Angola 1.435 1.45 1.528 1.528
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.306 0.309 0.325 0.325
Equatorial Guinea 0.12 0.121 0.127 0.127
Gabon 0.175 0.177 0.187 0.187
Iran Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Iraq 4.37 4.414 4.653 4.803
Kuwait 2.639 2.666 2.809 2.959
Libya Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.718 1.735 1.829 1.829
Saudi Arabia 10.331 10.436 11.000 11.500
UAE 2.976 3.006 3.168 3.500
Venezuela Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt
Total 25.062 25.316 26.683 27.815

Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.675 0.682 0.718 0.718
Bahrain 0.193 0.195 0.205 0.205
Brunei 0.096 0.097 0.102 0.102
Kazakhstan 1.605 1.621 1.709 1.709
Malaysia 0.559 0.565 0.595 0.595
Mexico 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt
Oman 0.829 0.837 0.883 0.883
Russia 10.331 10.436 11.000 11.500
Sudan 0.071 0.072 0.075 0.075
South Sudan 0.122 0.123 0.130 0.130
Total 16.234 16.381 15.417 15.917
OPEC+ 41.296 41.697 42.1 43.732

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 09 02•March•2022