Page 9 - MEOG Week 09 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

Iran, US each say they have a

Plan B if a deal revival fails

IRAN WITH a decision overdue on whether a path can would lift US sanctions on Iran’s oil and other
be found to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between industries in return for verifiable compliance
Iran and major powers, Tehran and Washington from Tehran with restrictions aimed at keeping
engaged in more brinksmanship, threatening the country’s nuclear development programme
each other that should an agreement not be purely civilian).
struck, they have a plan B. Reuters reported on March 1 that tanking
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed tracking data showed that China’s purchases of
Khatibzadeh warned the US against “bluff and Iranian oil have risen to record levels in recent
bluster” at the ongoing Vienna talks, said Iran months, exceeding a 2017 peak when the trade
would not wait for ever for a deal and would take was not subject to US sanctions.
an alternative course if no deal was forthcoming, However, on the same day, S&P Global
Press TV reported on March 1. reported that Iran’s state-owned National Iranian
Khatibzadeh was responding to US State Oil Company was offering fewer cargoes to Chi-
Department spokesperson Ned Price who, nese trading houses as it looked to keep barrels
Reuters reported, on February 28 said: “We are to sell directly to the market ahead of the poten-
prepared to walk away if Iran displays an intran- tial lifting of sanctions. It cited Chinese trading
sigence to making progress.” sources who deal with Iranian cargoes.
The United States and its allies and partners Finally, in a move against Donald Trump - the
will pursue “alternatives” if Iran is “unwilling to former US president who took Washington out
engage in good faith,” he added, without detail- of the nuclear deal and hit Iran with sanctions,
ing those alternatives. unprecedented in their scope - Iran announced
France’s foreign ministry said on February on February 28 at the the 49th regular session
28 that it was urgent to conclude talks relating of the Human Rights Council in Geneva that its
to resuming the Joint Comprehensive Plan of judiciary is to start a trial of all those that were
Action (JCPOA) this week. involved in the assassination of top Iranian gen-
Whether a deal is at hand or not, Iran appears eral Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.
to be stepping up plans to hugely increase its They include Trump and former US secretary
crude oil exports (if reinstated, the JCPOA of state Mike Pompeo.™

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