Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 24 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

How exposed is Belarus to EU

oil and gas sanctions?

Sanctioning gas transit would have far greater implications for Russia and its customers

BELARUS IN the aftermath of Belarus’ decision in late May gas was piped through Belarus in 2020, accord-
to divert a Ryanair plane, in order to capture ing to Gazprom, versus 42.3 bcm in 2018.
WHAT: anti-government protestor Roman Protasevich, The idea behind the sanctions is that they
The EU is considering there have been calls in the EU for sanctions to would rob Belarus of revenues for this transit.
sanctions against be imposed on the country’s energy sector. It is However, it is Gazprom that owns the section
Belarus. worth looking at how Belarus might be affected of Yamal-Europe that runs through Belarus. As
by such measures. such, Belarus’ main loss from sanctions would
WHY: The EU is likely to adopt sanctions against only be the tax payments it gets from these tran-
Sanctions against the the regime of Belarusian President Alexander sit operations, which amounted to only $50mn
country’s gas transit and Lukashenko later this month, its foreign policy in 2020.
oil product exports have chief Josep Borrell told MEPs on June 8. In late Sanctioning transit would have far greater
been suggested. May, German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass said implications for Russia and its customers. Rus-
the EU had discussed sanctions against gas tran- sia would have to divert shipments to Ukraine,
WHAT NEXT: sit across Belarus. Meanwhile, Lithuanian For- at least until the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is up and
Targeting transit would eign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has said running. This would mean higher transit costs,
hurt Russia and its the bloc should consider hitting the Belarusian as Russia has long complained that the reason-
customers more than oil sector. ing behind its desire to divert supplies away from
Belarus. Hitting the Ukraine is the high expense of using the route.
country’s oil product Gas transit Poland would be most vulnerable to a dis-
exports would have a Belarus serves as transit route for Russian gas ruption in transit via Belarus, as it relies on the
meaningful impact, but supplies via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which route for roughly two thirds of its gas needs. It
would also hurt Ukraine. also runs through Poland before terminating in would able to offset this loss through increased
Germany. Some 40.5bn cubic metres of Russian LNG imports and supplies from Ukraine. The

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