Page 17 - FSUOGM Week 42

FSUOGM PERFORMANCE FSUOGM

Russia to see little change in

energy mix by 2040: IEA

RUSSIA RUSSIA’S energy mix is unlikely to undergo sig- issues as a low priority.
nificant change in the coming decades, the Inter- “Russia often treats climate change as a sub-
Russia has ratified the national Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted in set of issues within the spheres of foreign or
2015 Paris Agreement its World Energy Outlook. security policy. Awareness and recognition of
but its commitments In its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which climate-related risks have increased in recent
are so modest that it reflects the impact of existing policies, the IEA years, but climate issues still garner low policy
has already met them. predicts that natural gas will retain the same 54% priority,” the paper stated. “Russia only gave offi-
share in Russia’s total primary energy demand in cial acceptance to the Paris agreement in Octo-
two decades’ time that it had last year. The share ber 2019, making it one of the last of the major
of oil will shrink slightly from 20% in 2019 to carbon-emitter countries to do so.”
18% in 2040, while the share of coal will dimin- Russia is reluctant to scale back its use of fossil
ish from 15% to 12%. fuels given its abundant resources, especially of
Nuclear energy, which accounted for 7% of gas.
the country’s mix last year, will have an 8% share In its Sustainable Development Scenario
in 20 years’ time. Hydroelectric power’s share (SDS), which assumes that the world aligns its
will remain constant at 2%, while bioenergy’s policies fully with the goals of the Paris Agree-
share will increase from 1% to 3% and other ment, Russia’s energy mix alters more signifi-
renewables from a negligible level to 3%. cantly in the next two decades. But still it does
Total primary demand in Russia rose from not undergo a radical transformation.
677mn tonnes of oil equivalent in 2010 to 744mn Gas retains its dominant role, expanding its
toe in 2019. Growth will slow down in the com- share from 54% in 2019 to 56% in 2030 but con-
ing decades, though, rising to 741mn toe in 2025, tracting to 49% by 2040. Coal’s share will shrink
755mn toe in 2030 and 782mn toe in 2040. from 15% to 9% and then 6%, as it is squeezed
Russia has ratified the 2015 Paris Agreement, out by cleaner fuels.
but its commitments are so modest that it has The share of nuclear power will expand from
already met them. This was because its base- 7% to 9% and then 12%, while hydropower’s
line for emissions is their level in 1990, the year share will increase from 2% to 3% and then 4%.
before the Soviet Union’s collapse when they Bioenergy will see a significant growth, from 1%
were at a record high. A recent paper from the to 2% and then 7%. So too will renewables, from
Bank of Finland Institute for Economies Transi- a minimal amount last year to 2% in 2030 and
tion (BOFIT) noted that Moscow views climate 6% in 2040.™

Week 42 21•October•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P17